University of Iowa expert outlines nuts and bolts of Iran deal

Plenty of pundits and analysts have weighed in on the political slants and implications of an Iranian nuclear deal the United States and five other world powers signed Tuesday, but one University of Iowa lecturer and Middle East expert said the core principles are simple.

In exchange for Iran's vow to curb its nuclear program and allow invasive inspections of its nuclear sites, the world will lift years of economic sanctions that have hurt the Persian nation, said Nicholas Grossman, who teaches UI courses on Middle East and international relations, and has been following the Iran negotiations closely.

Curbing the Iranian nuclear program means shipping out much of its enriched uranium and centrifuges - or nuclear fuel and the equipment that turns it into weapons material. And the invasive inspections are meant to prevent Iran from 'cheating” by secretly continuing efforts to build a bomb.

Lifting sanctions - imposed years ago by the United States, European Union, and United Nations amid nuclear concerns - will, in part, give Iran access to about $100 billion in frozen assets and allow it to ramp up oil exports.

Some aspects of the deal, which resulted from about 20 months of negotiations, will expire after 15 years. Other portions will last 20 years.

Grossman said both sides had to give a little to reach the deal, and there are pros and cons for all involved.

Pros

From the U.S. perspective, the agreement will increase the time it could take Iran to assemble a bomb from two to three months to at least a year.

It also will increase inspection access that, when paired with today's newer technology like drones, will decrease the odds Iran will cheat on their nuclear commitments.

'I think it's not likely the Iranians will cheat, mostly because they got caught before when we didn't have careful inspections,” Grossman said. 'If they got cheating then, they probably would get caught cheating again.”

The hope from President Barack Obama's camp is that, after 15 years of being hooked up to the global economy and building positive relationships, Iran won't want to ruin that by going for a nuclear weapon again, according to Grossman.

If it did, sanctions could be reinstated.

'A lot of the debate comes down to predictions about whether Iran is going to wait 15 years and then go for a nuclear weapon again or if they are going to give up on the hope of becoming a nuclear weapons power and continue to have those positive relations with the world,” Grossman said.

The deal is positive for Iran, he said, in that it has been hurt by the economic sanctions. Its currency has crashed, and Iranian banks haven't been able to transfer money abroad, according to Grossman.

'The sanctions have really hindered their ability to do international business,” he said. 'This opens up a lot of opportunities for them.”

That, he said, is part of the reason Russia and China also are on board with the agreement. They were concerned enough about the nuclear threat to back the sanctions.

'But the end of the sanctions will increase trade for them and make them money,” Grossman said.

Cons

Still, some have concerns about that economic boost for Iran. The nation is a supporter of a variety of groups that are threats to American allies in the region, like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Those groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen, the Assad government in Syria, and a variety of Shia groups in and around Iraq, according to Grossman.

'The sanctions relief will benefit the Iranian economy, its place in the Middle East, and its support for groups like Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and overall activities that the United States and its allies have considered disruptive,” he said.

The agreement also could lift an embargo on the international sale of weapons and missile parts to Iran if the country stays in compliance for eight years, Grossman said.

And, after the deal expires, some are worried a then-stronger Iran will just carry on with its nuclear plans.

'And they wouldn't be under the same pressure,” Grossman said.

Iran is the world's biggest nuclear threat, according to Grossman, with only North Korea testing the field by producing weaker bombs. But, he said, if Iran did press forward with its nuclear initiatives, some international officials worry other nations would follow suit, he said.

'That is one of the big fears of the international community - that it would prompt others in the region to also try to do it,” he said.

And then there's implementation of the deal. Grossman said Congress has 60 days to review it and decide whether to move forward. If it does, the international community must verify - at least to some extent - compliance by Iran before lifting sanctions.