5 Things: Predicting Iowa hoops 2017-18

Basketball is back — and not just in the headlines thanks to money and shoes. The Iowa men's basketball team started official practice for the 2017-18 season Monday, as did the second year of the newest era of Hawkeyes under Coach Fran McCaffery.

You're going to hear a lot about potential and living up to it in the next few weeks, but until then, all we can do is wonder — and predict what could happen. With that in mind, let's look at 5 Things that might be in store for the Iowa men's basketball team this season:

1. Tyler Cook will be first team All-Big Ten

Way out on a limb here, right? He's returning after finishing his freshman year second on the team in scoring with 12.3 points per game and third on the team in rebounding at 5.3 rebounds per game, and looked every bit the part of an All-Big Ten-type player over the summer.

Acknowledging the fact that the Prime Time League and the Hawkeyes' trip to Germany didn't put him up against the same kind of competition he or the team will see in Big Ten play, it's his consistency with which he worked that stood out. His fluidity and footwork in the post looked improved. His passing and court vision even more so.

Cook came in with more hype than perhaps any prospect under McCaffery, but got off to a slower start last year than he hoped for and most anyone else expected. But after missing five games with a broken finger and having an up-and-down start to conference play, Cook finished the year in a way that suggested the light had clicked. Over his final seven games, Cook averaged 13.9 points, a team-best 7.6 rebounds — up from 4.5 per game to that point — and shot 62.9 percent. He didn't miss a shot in the two NIT games while averaging 17 points and 6.5 rebounds.

'Looking back on the season I had, watching film — when I watch film I look at not only baskets I made, but that I missed and the opportunities that I could make a better play,' Cook said this summer. 'I'll watch each game twice or three times over again and other college teams and pros. Just being able to watch situations and know what I can do next time I get in that situation has helped me a lot.'

There's a maturation process most players have to go through, and to ask Cook, his freshman year was just that. He's grown into film study and self-dissection. Marrying his physical gifts with his intelligence — both were working last year, but not always in-sync — will mean more fluidity more quickly.

Add to that he'll have more help on the block offensively and protecting the rim on defense, and his versatility should have a chance to flourish.

2. Iowa will finish in the top five in the Big Ten

Michigan State might be a Final Four team with Miles Bridges and Nick Ward back. Purdue has Vince Edwards, Isaac Haas and Carsen Edwards back. Outside of that? Lots of talent throughout the conference, but not so much that there's a clear-cut pecking order.

Minnesota, on paper, should be able to back up a rebound year last year with Nate Mason, Amir Coffey and Reggie Lynch still in the fold. Same goes for Northwestern, which has Bryant McIntosh and Scottie Lindsey back from the first Wildcat NCAA Tournament team. Maryland still has Justin Jackson and Wisconsin has Ethan Happ.

But while Iowa lost the Big Ten's leading scorer in Peter Jok, it returns everyone else who contributed. It's probably not realistic to expect this team to challenge for the regular season championship given the talent and experience of the Spartans and Boilermakers, but a top five or even top three finish shouldn't be dismissed.

Remember, Iowa played well without Jok for two games last season, beat Purdue at home — and that was with Caleb Swanigan — and won at Maryland and Wisconsin at the end of the season. The team grew, and has a tremendous level of talent all its own. Cook, Cordell Pemsl, Jordan Bohannon and Nicholas Baer all finished in the top 25 of individual players in at least four statistical categories on KenPom. And with Jack Nunge and Luka Garza coming to potentially shore up the lane defensively, the Hawkeyes should be well-rounded.

Whether or not bracketologists think so at this point or not, Iowa will be heard from.

3. Jack Nunge and Luka Garza both will make (at least) the all-freshman team

Again, another giant limb to go out on. But even against air, Luka Garza's play in Germany on Iowa's European trip would've made eyebrows rise. And Jack Nunge shot the ball very well all summer, handled the ball well and carried himself well.

It should be the farthest thing from news that both these players will have a large part of the rotation (hold that thought) and the question of whether or not one would redshirt got a blank stare from McCaffery this summer.

Garza looks the part of the kind of player that could be a second or third-team Big Ten player right out of the gate. His size and wingspan make him the rim protector Iowa missed without Adam Woodbury, but his offensive skill set and his body control — facing or back to the basket — is something not often seen in a (nearly) seven-footer.

Nunge has the size of a center but plays almost like a guard. He's not Kevin Durant, but he plays that kind of style — which makes sense, since he said this summer Durant is his favorite player. There will be times this year where Garza, Nunge, Cook and Baer are on the floor together, which should frighten opponents.

4. And the rotation will be …

Let me stress here that Fran McCaffery won't take advice from someone who writes words for a living, and that the following is my best guess based on what we've seen and potential for the newcomers.

Starters: Jordan Bohannon, Isaiah Moss, Nicholas Baer, Tyler Cook and Luka Garza.

Sixth man: Jack Nunge

Next forwards: Cordell Pemsl, Ahmad Wagner, Ryan Kriener

Next guards: Brady Ellingson, Christian Williams, Maishe Dailey

Three of the starters should be obvious. Bohannon, Moss and Cook started most of last season. Bohannon and Cook are two who will emerge as leaders on and off the court, and Moss is the heir apparent to Jok in terms of his role. Garza's starting spot should be secure in his skills on both ends. It's Baer's spot that is most in doubt.

Baer has been Iowa's resident Sixth Man — and the Big Ten's Sixth Man of the Year last year — but McCaffery has made the point before: sometimes guys just have to start. It happened with Anthony Clemmons, and Baer's contributions will be needed right away — especially to start the year.

Nunge would then assume the Sixth Man role for the reasons mentioned above. After that, it'll take months before anything is consistent in the way of a rotation, similar to last year. Pemsl and Wagner proved productive, with Pemsl setting a Big Ten record for shooting percentage at 61.7 percent. Kriener's summer indicates he's taken a step forward, and he's earned more time.

More Iowa basketball: Cordell Pemsl walks well-known road to recovery

Among the guards, Ellingson and Williams will have to produce because the guard group lost its best player and didn't get anyone new. Williams will see time because of his defense and Ellingson his shooting. Dailey's role is the least certain on the team at this point because there's very little to go on. He was more confident this summer and shot consistently.

The guy left out in all this? Dom Uhl. He'll play a bit, but it's hard to find room in the active rotation for him with how inconsistent he was offensively last year and his lack of ability to defend the rim.

5. Iowa will win a game in the NCAA Tournament

Hawkeyes social media went a little wild (shocker, right?) when Joe Lunardi released his first 2017-18 Bracketology and Iowa wasn't on it. Looking at the non-conference slate and a lack of several resume-boosting opponents, the Hawkeyes will have to win a lot of games in the Big Ten to make the NCAA Tournament.

Thing is, Iowa is definitely good enough to win a lot of games in the Big Ten. It came within a win or two last year of making the Big Dance, and everything points to the Hawkeyes being a better team.

Given that, this not only should be a Tournament team, but one that is capable of winning at least one game once they get there. The NCAA Tournament is about matchups. Iowa will provide some awful matchups for other teams, and those outside the Big Ten and unfamiliar with the Hawkeyes could run into big trouble.

This team is Sweet 16 caliber as it stands right now.

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