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2-Minute Drill: Michigan Wolverines
Marc Morehouse
Nov. 10, 2016 5:00 am
Well, here this is. This is a very different thing than what maybe everyone thought it'd be.
Michigan is way better than maybe the college football world thought it might be in Jim Harbaugh's second season in Ann Arbor. Iowa is way worse than everyone Iowa expected. The Hawkeyes had a decent amount of starters returning from a Big Ten West Division championship season and now are playing for their bowl lives.
Michigan is No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Iowa is 12th in the Big Ten in total offense.
This is not the Kinnick Stadium, 'under the lights,' 'maybe alternative uniform,' 'on ABC with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit' game that we all thought it might be.
For Michigan, it's another chance at style points, which Harbaugh seems intent on pursuing with 'enthusiasm unknown to mankind (and why not?). For Iowa, it's perhaps its best shot at relevance with what's left of 2016. OK, not 'perhaps.' Illinois won't ring the bell. There's a trophy with Nebraska, but the Huskers aren't No. 3 in the CFP.
MICHIGAN RUSH DEFENSE VS. IOWA RUSH OFFENSE
When defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin left to become head coach at Maryland, Harbaugh went and hired Don Brown, a 60-year-old who has run an unglamorous road in his coaching career, serving as coordinator at such offensively challenged outposts as UConn and Boston College.
Brown's array of defensive packages, a 4-3 base that can go every down and then ranging from a 4-2-5 to a 3-4, were matched with highly skilled athletes. The results have been terrifying for the rest of the Big Ten.
The Wolverines lead the nation in seven defensive categories including scoring, total, pass, third down, tackles for loss first downs and red zone.
Strongside linebacker Jabrill Peppers is the headliner. He's No. 2 in the Big Ten in tackles for loss. Brown sends him off the edge frequently. UM's front four, led by ends Taco Charlton and Chris Wormley, has been instrumental in defending run and pass, and has been a huge element in the Wolverines' national-best 59 three-and-outs.
After being held to a season-low 30 rushing yards at Penn State last week, the Hawkeyes now have been held to less than 100 yards in four games this season. Iowa now stands 12th in the league with 152.6 rushing yards per game. That tracks as Iowa's worst rank in the B1G since ending the 2012 season 12th.
This doesn't mesh well with the Wolverines, who've held seven opponents to less than 85 rushing yards. Michigan State did rush for 217 yards against the Wolverines and Michigan State is really bad this season (2-7). But Iowa's only rushing performance against a legit league defense was 179 yards against Minnesota, which is third in the league against the run.
Iowa's offense has rarely gotten to the point this season where it can feed 225-pound running back LeShun Daniels. He's had more than 20 carries just once this season and was held to 10 rushes for 18 yards at Penn State.
Iowa's O-line likely will be without tackle Cole Croston (ankle). Tight end George Kittle, one of Iowa's best run blockers, also is nursing an ankle/foot injury.
Advantage: Michigan
MICHIGAN PASS DEFENSE VS. IOWA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan leads the nation in pass defense (138.9 yards per game). Opponents are completing just 44 percent (97 of 220) against UM. Michigan has 10 interceptions and has allowed just eight TD passes.
Cornerback Channing Stribling and safety Delano Hill (who was once committed to Iowa) have three interceptions apiece. Corner Jourdan Lewis has two. Michigan also has held five opponents to less than 100 passing yards.
Michigan uses a lot of press coverage, something Iowa's receivers have been inconsistent in handling this season, and Brown dials up a lot of blitzes. His nickname is 'Dr. Blitz.' Brown often likes to use six players in pass rush and it's worked. Michigan leads the Big Ten and is No. 8 nationally with 30.0 sacks this season. Charlton leads the Wolverines with 4.5 sacks. Seven UM defenders have 3.0 or more sacks.
Iowa is holding at 11.3 yards per pass completion, which is No. 99 in the nation. In the last three games, the Hawkeyes have averaged an anemic 10.9 yards per completion.
Maybe sophomore wide receiver Jerminic Smith found himself at Penn State, where he was targeted by QB C.J. Beathard six times and caught five passes for 85 yards, including a 36-yard TD pass. It was his most productive game this season and his first TD since week 1. Running back Akrum Wadley's involvement in the passing game continued at PSU with six targets and five receptions for 38 yards, including a 12-yard TD that Wadley made happen with a few moves coming out of a screen pass. Sophomore Adrian Falconer saw 26 snaps and his first target this season, which was picked off.
Kittle's range remains affected by his injury. He caught two passes for 9 yards. No other TE has progressed to the point of a lot of targets. Freshman Noah Fant had two targets, but dropped a pass.
Protection remains spotty. Michigan has knocked eight QBs from games this season. That's not an official stat, but certainly one to track.
Advantage: Michigan
MICHIGAN RUSH OFFENSE VS. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan's offense looks a lot like head coach Jim Harbaugh's Stanford offenses, a 'power coast' idea. Stripped down, the Wolverines run power O. Harbaugh works with it and off it with play-action passes. There will be a ton of formations, including 'barge,' unbalanced and 'super' unbalanced, but Michigan is mostly power O with down blocks, fullback and backside guard pulling for a double team at the point of attack.
Michigan wants to leave a physical imprint on the defense. At 251.7 yards per game, the Wolverines are No. 2 in the Big Ten in rush offense. Michigan spreads carries to three running backs — De'Veon Smith (564 yards), Karan Higdon (a former Iowa commit who has 418 yards) and Ty Isaac (404 yards). The Wolverines did lose left tackle Grant Newsome to a season-ending knee injury, but the center (Mason Cole) and right side of the OL (guard Kyle Kalis and tackle Erik Magnuson) have started every game.
Iowa's rush defense went into the Penn State game as the Hawkeyes' last beacon of stability. It came out with 359 rushing yards against, the third most in Kirk Ferentz's 18 seasons and most since 420 allowed at Wisconsin in 1999.
Where were the breakdowns? Tackles Jaleel Johnson and Faith Ekakitie struggled mightily. With tackle Nathan Bazata playing just 15 snaps after suffering an ankle injury, there was no rotation and their play slumped as the game progressed. It all starts up front, so everything kind of crumbled. Penn State also aggressively attacked weakside linebacker Bo Bower and found success.
This is where the details matter, and that has to be the fix this week. The rush defense again is tracking to be the worst since 2000, allowing 176.6 yards a game. The Hawkeyes were a 3-9 team in 2000 when they allowed 194.3.
Advantage: Michigan
MICHIGAN PASS OFFENSE VS. IOWA PASS DEFENSE
The Big Ten Network talked up Michigan QB Wilton Speight for the Heisman Trophy this week. Now, that's BTN's job, with 49 percent of the network belonging to the conference. It's B1G friendly. Let's see if Speight's numbers are Heisman-worthy: He's thrown for 2,053 yards, 15 TDs and just three interceptions this season. He's No. 2 in the B1G with a 64.5 completion percentage. His 157.9 pass efficiency leads the league and is 14th nationally. His 8.9 yards per attempt also leads the B1G and is 11th nationally.
Speight's best number is 9-0. If that continues, who knows? You have to think Peppers is a definite possibility for an invite to New York. Two Wolverines probably is asking too much, but Speight has been a revelation.
Wide receiver Amara Darboh (a Des Moines native) is the second-most productive WR in the Big Ten behind Northwestern's Austin Carr. Darboh has 42 receptions for 741 yards and six TDs. Tight end Jake Butt leads all Big Ten TEs with 34 catches for 421 yards and four TDs.
Iowa's pass defense has been in a slow slide the last two games. Wisconsin averaged 10.2 yards per attempt, a winning number 10 out of 10 times unless you protest defense like, say, Texas Tech. It got worse at Penn State, with first-year QB Trace McSorley putting up 13.3 yards per attempt (124th in the country last week).
Even all-American cornerback Desmond King got caught looking last week. On Penn State's first TD, King was caught in no man's land, shading to help in coverage over the middle while losing WR Saeed Blacknall for a 19-yard TD on PSU's first series of the game. McSorley also found receivers for big completions behind Bower. Cornerback Greg Mabin also was picked on.
At 225.4 yards per game, Iowa's pass defense is tracking to its highest season average since 230.1 in 2010.
Advantage: Michigan
SPECIAL TEAMS
Michigan is allowing punt and kick returns. The Wolverines give up 8.7 yards per punt return (ninth in the league) and 21.3 per kick return (seventh in B1G). So, maybe King can do some work in the return game. He's No. 3 in the league with 9.2 per punt return and No. 1 with 29.2 yards per kick return.
Peppers is perhaps the most interesting man in college football this season. He's a 6-1, 205-pound linebacker/safety hybrid who also happens to have played 13 positions for UM. He also happens to lead the Big Ten with an otherworldly 17.1 yards on 15 punt returns, including a conference-best two of 50-plus yards.
If you're on the fence on whether or not to attend, you don't see a player like Peppers every year.
Michigan has four blocked kicks this season (tied for the most in the league). Punter Kenny Allen would be in the B1G's top three with a 42.1 yards per average, but he has just 27 punts. To qualify for punting stats, punters must average 3.6 punts per game. Allen averages just 3.0.
So yes, Michigan is too good to punt and it's killing its punter's chance for league honors. That's one of those good problems.
Advantage: Michigan
INTANGIBLES
1. Style points — Michigan doesn't need style points here. The Wolverines are probably stuck at No. 3 in the CFP rankings, behind Alabama and Clemson. There's probably nothing UM can do to raise itself in the CFP before its season finale at Ohio State. Then, the Wolverines stamp themselves for the CFP. Or not. That said, Harbaugh and UM won 78-0 at Rutgers. So, who knows where this goes. That's up to Iowa.
Hlas: Saturday, Hawkeyes enter Harbaugh world
2. Last stand — The Hawkeyes were drubbed at Penn State last week. Iowa hasn't allowed 40 points in back-to-back games since 2000 (42 vs. Nebraska, 45 vs. Indiana). At 5-4, the most memorable thing the 2016 Hawkeyes can do from here on out is beat Michigan.
3. Fact of the matter — Remember that whole north end zone renovation thing Iowa announced earlier this fall? Well, in the wake of losing to Wisconsin and losing badly at Penn State, along with the sting of losing a pair of 4-star recruits, the price for club seats in the north EZ is $1,000 per seat to guarantee access along with an annual contribution of $1,958 per seat plus the cost of a football season ticket.
Iowa athletics director Gary Barta has said there is a waiting list of around 300 people. Would Saturday's result affect that?
MICHIGAN WILL WIN IF ... The Wolverines start fast, which is a pretty good bet. Michigan has outscored opponents 112-28 in the first quarter this season.
IOWA WILL WIN IF ... The Hawkeyes find a level of play — offense, defense and special teams — they have yet to show this season.
PREDICTION: Michigan 41, Iowa 7
Iowa running back Akrum Wadley (25) tries to get out of the pack, failing to make first down against Penn State last week. (Liz Martin/The Gazette)