UNI football opponent breakdown: Missouri State

There's no good way to sugarcoat the season Missouri State has had. Under the guidance of new head coach Dave Steckel, the Bears have just one win to their credit, and have lost by an average score of 49-12.

Northern Iowa heads to Springfield, Mo., to continue its run toward a possible postseason berth and hopes for a fourth straight win in that effort. The Panthers (5-4, 3-3 Missouri Valley Football Conference), on paper, shouldn't have any more or less trouble than the other top MVFC teams that have played Missouri State this season. The Bears' ranked opponents have won by an average score of 45-9. With the way the UNI defense has been playing, Missouri State likely faces more of the same from the rest of this season. Coach Mark Farley and Co. do get a reunion with former Panther offensive coordinator Mario Verduzco, so that familiarity should bring some emotion from both sides.

Each week we'll have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. This week it's Jim Connell, who covers Missouri State (1-8, 0-6) for the News-Leader in Springfield, Mo.

MISSOURI STATE SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Sept. 5 at Memphis, L, 63-7

Sept. 12 vs Chadron State, W, 21-13

Sept. 19 at Arkansas State, L, 70-7

Oct. 3 vs No. 24 Indiana State, L, 56-28

Oct. 10 at Southern Illinois, L, 73-26

Oct. 17 vs No. 4 Illinois State, L, 38-2

Oct. 24 at South Dakota, L, 40-10

Oct. 31 vs No. 13 South Dakota State, L, 39-0

Nov. 7 at No. 21 Youngstown State, L, 47-7

Nov. 14 vs No. 17 UNI

Nov. 21 at No. 2 North Dakota State

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

Much of this breakdown will be an exercise in some cringe-worthy statistics. Missouri State lines up in a spread, but hasn't been able to succeed much at all in either facet of the offensive game.

The Bears average 250.6 yards of total offense per game, ranking them last – by a wide margin – in the MVFC. They tally just 111.3 yards per game passing and 139.2 yards per game rushing. While Verduzco's system is the same one Panther fans got used to seeing for 14 years in the UNI-Dome, the execution of that system is far from what he and UNI put forth for so long. The Bears don't take care of the ball well, with 16 total turnovers (10 interceptions, six fumbles lost) and they can't stay on the field (just 25 percent on third down this season).

Missouri State has traded quarterbacks at various times this season, with Brodie Lambert seeing action in all nine games and Breck Ruddick in six. Lambert has thrown for 618 yards on 55 percent completion, with nine interceptions and three touchdowns. Ruddick has 384 yards on 50 percent completion, two touchdowns and one interception. Their leading rusher is Ryan Heaston with 355 yards (3.9 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. It all points to a feasting day for a UNI defense that has been hungry for a shutout.

From Connell on Missouri State's offensive outlook:

'The Bears have had trouble moving the ball, converting third downs and stringing drives together from Day One. They are young on the offensive line, and the entire unit has been overmatched every week in the MVFC. Former UNI offensive coordinator Mario Verduzco has a few weapons, in rugged tailbacks Ryan Heaston (355 yards, 2 TDs) and Calan Crowder (274 yards, 2 TDs), but the quarterbacks (Brodie Lambert and Breck Ruddick) are young and have had problems with consistency.'

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

As bad as the Missouri State offense has been this season, the defense has been much, much worse. The Bears line up in a 4-3 system, but have not been able to find any semblance of consistency or continuity within that system.

Opponents this season average 547.2 yards per game, with 278.4 through the air and 268.8 on the ground. The Bears have allowed 57 touchdowns in nine games, with 26 passing and 27 rushing. They have forced 10 turnovers this season (five interceptions and five fumble recoveries) but have only been able to turn that into 14 total points. On the flip side, the 16 turnovers the MSU offense committed were turned into 79 points. The Bears' defense has also been on the field a substantial amount, forcing opponents to punt just 32 times all season and allowing opponents to convert third downs 54 percent of the time.

MSU has struggled tackling, covering receivers and maintaining assignments, and that isn't likely to change overnight. When they do complete the tackles, though, the Bears have been solid tackling behind the line of scrimmage, with 52 total tackles for loss and 15 sacks as a team. Getting there – and consistently – has been the problem.

From Connell on Missouri State's defensive outlook:

'Every week, first-year Missouri State coach Dave Steckel (a former defensive coordinator at Mizzou) talks about the need for better fundamentals, and it shows on defense. The Bears are small and often a step slow, so when you add in poor tackling and being caught out of position, it tells you why they have given up 40 or more points in six of the nine games.'

KEY PLAYERS

Dylan Cole, LB – This young man has been a bright spot for the Bears this season. He leads the Bears and MVFC with 115 total tackles, has 10.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. He also has four passes defensed, four pass breakups and has recovered a fumble. He's everywhere on the field for MSU defensively, mostly because he has to be.

Ryan Heaston, RB – The MSU running game has not been great this season, but Heaston has shouldered the weight for the Bears behind a patchwork offensive line. He averages 3.9 yards per game rushing with the aforementioned 355 yards and two touchdowns. He drives his feet well and does a solid job of keeping the ball moving forward, with just 19 negative yards in 90 carries this season.

Connell on Missouri State's key players:

'If the Bears are to get some sustained offensive rhythm going and take pressure off the defense, it will have to start with the running game. Ryan Heaston is durable and has had some decent runs at the start of games, but keeping it going for more than a series or two has been a challenge. Defensively, linebacker Dylan Cole is a player who will be in the middle of the action throughout Saturday's game. He leads the Valley with 115 tackles and is third nationally in total tackles.

PREDICTION

This one shouldn't be complicated. Missouri State has and will see better days and better games, but that should not be Saturday. The Panthers are far better in every phase, and on top of that are playing their best football of the season, by far. Even with Verduzco's knowledge of how the UNI defense operates – he went against that unit for 14 years, after all – his offense just doesn't have the tools with which to beat a defense that's hitting its stride. The potential does exist for the Panthers to overlook the Bears and assume it's a win before even taking the field, but that's never really been a hallmark of Mark Farley-coached teams. Add to that the focus the UNI defense has shown in the last three weeks, and it'll likely be another very long day for MSU. Northern Iowa 45, Missouri State 3.

From Connell:

'The Bears have been outscored by an average of 49-12 this season, and after watching them all season, that margin is surprising in how close it is. Better days may be ahead for Steckel, but for now, this will probably go down as the worst MSU team in the already-thin history of the program. I'm predicting the Panthers get a 45-6 victory.'

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com