UNI football opponent breakdown: Iowa State

Whenever Northern Iowa plays Iowa State or Iowa, it's a much friendlier in-state rivalry than what comes the following week. Obviously the reasons behind that are multilayered, but the biggest benefit is the lack of vitriol between the two fan bases.

Saturday is a big day for both teams, as it'll be the biggest crowd UNI plays in front of all season, will set an attendance record for Jack Trice Stadium and will tell both teams a lot about where they stand.

UNI still needs a quarterback and has plenty of answers to find on both offense and defense — both scheme- and personnel-wise — and the Panthers' opponent will certainly do their best to exploit those uncertainties. This Iowa State breakdown serves as the first of a weekly series breaking down UNI's opponents headed into game day.

Each week we'll have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. This week it's Bobby LaGesse, who covers Iowa State for the Ames Tribune.

OPPONENT SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Iowa State 2015 Schedule:

Sept. 5 vs UNI

Sept. 12 vs Iowa

Sept. 19 at Toledo

Oct. 2 vs Kansas

Oct. 9 at Texas Tech

Oct. 16 vs TCU

Oct. 23 at Baylor

Oct. 30 vs Texas

Nov. 6 at Oklahoma

Nov. 13 vs Oklahoma State

Nov. 20 at Kansas State

Nov. 27 at West Virginia

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

As UNI Coach Mark Farley has said repeatedly, Year 2 of the Mark Mangino offense brings a certain familiarity and comfortability the Cyclones simply could not have to begin last year.

The Cyclones offer an up-tempo offense in the ever-popular spread formation, and have both an experienced quarterback and a deep, talented receiver corps. Sam Richardson is healthy and has Allen Lazard (hold that thought), Quenton Bundrage, D'Vario Montgomery and Dondre Daley to throw to. Bundrage's return is as important as anything, as the senior had 48 catches for 676 yards and nine touchdowns as a sophomore. He was injured in last year's opener and missed the entire season.

How Mangino deploys the passing game will make or break the game Saturday night, as the ISU rushing attack still is in a to-be-determined state after the dismissal of running back D'Vondrick Nealy.

From LaGesse on Iowa State's offensive outlook:

'The ISU offense oozes with potential. In year two, the Cyclones have a better understanding of Mark Mangino's offense. Quarterback Sam Richardson returns, as do wide outs Quenton Bundrage, Allen Lazard and D'Vario Montgomery. The passing game should be the anchor of the offense, but plenty of questions surround the 105th ranked rushing attack from last season. More is needed from the offensive line and an inexperienced group of running backs.'

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

It was not a pretty picture for Iowa State last season on defense, and 2015 brings almost a total overhaul in personnel — or at the very least a return of some important players. Luke Knott returns from a shoulder injury, Demond Tucker and Jordan Harris highlight JUCO transfers and Kamari Cotton-Moya and Nigel Tribune lead a defensive backfield that hope to benefit from a year under their belts.

Wally Burnham is a veteran coordinator and his overall record speaks for itself, but the last few years have been an ink blot on that resume. UNI can't expect much of the same from an ISU defense that gave up 528.9 yards per game to opposing offenses. The personnel are different and the play-calling will be different. This side of the ball will be improved, too, if the new players perform.

From LaGesse on Iowa State's defensive outlook:

'ISU was not good defensively last season. The Cyclones finished at or near the bottom of the Big 12 in most major defensive statistical categories. The Cyclones are breaking in an almost entirely new defensive front seven. How much better ISU is in 2015 may well come down to how much growth the defense makes. A slew of junior college transfers were brought in to help. They'll need to contribute in a hurry.'

KEY PLAYERS

As stated above, the ISU wide receivers are the strength of the Cyclones' offense, so it stands to reason at least one of the key players will come from that group.

Allen Lazard, WR

— The 6-foot-5, 223-pound sophomore had 45 catches for 593 yards and three touchdowns as a freshman in a campaign that served as a year to forget for the ISU offense. But individually, he's lived up to the hype in terms of physical play and talent. Farley referred to him as 'the real deal.' In a more effective offense and with a year under his belt, the highly-touted recruit should have a breakout year. On Saturday, he'll be guarded by either Deiondre Hall or Makinton Dorleant, both of whom are at a size disadvantage. He's a redzone monster, but has all-around ability.

Defensively, there are several areas Iowa State needed improve upon, but defensive line was chief among them.

Demond Tucker, DT — Even with the departure of David Johnson, under UNI's new offense the strength — at least to begin the season — will be at running back with Savon Huggins, Darrian Miller and Tyvis Smith. Last time they faced off — and last year — the ISU defensive line was porous and gave up nearly 250 yards per game rushing. Tucker, a JUCO transfer who had 104 tackles, 24.5 tackles for loss and 22.5 sacks in two seasons at Copiah-Lincoln C.C. — earning him NJCAA Defensive Player of the Year in 2013. His shoring up the middle of their defensive line will be a major hurdle for UNI to cross to get its ground game established.

From LaGesse on key players:

'Demond Tucker, DT

— a former JUCO national defensive player of the year. He's expected to fill ISU's biggest hole at defensive tackle.

'Sam Richardson, QB

— Great quarterback play can cover up a lot of problems for a team. ISU may need great quarterback play to make a run at bowl game.

'Jordan Harris, MLB — After defensive tackle, middle linebacker was ISU's most important position to tackle. Harris, a former junior college transfer coming off a red-shirt, will need to be on top of his game against the up-tempo offense Northern Iowa is expected to throw at the Cyclones.'

PREDICTION

From LaGesse: 'I think the ISU passing attack will prove to be too much for Northern Iowa to handle. The uncertainty around the Northern Iowa quarterback situation, and the team playing its first game in a new offense, is also a concern. ISU 35, Northern Iowa 21.

'

There's no doubt the team UNI will play Saturday is a much better version than what they played in 2013 — on most levels. And Farley himself said on On Iowa Live on Monday that the Panthers will not be able to out scheme the Cyclones or out-coach them; UNI will have to outplay ISU. While the last two meetings (2013 and 2011) have proved that's very possible, it's hard to imagine it happening again without David Johnson or Xavier Williams.

Iowa State should win, pulling away late after a hotly-contested first half — let's say by a score of 31-17

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l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com