NCAA projections: One final prediction at where state teams go

IOWA CITY - It's about time all this bracketology nonsense comes to a stop.

Nearly every day I roll my eyes and shake my head when I hear and see labels like 'expert” and 'bracketologist” attached to fellow media members who project the NCAA tournament field. It's one thing to provide an analysis and project which teams should qualify for the NCAA tournament. It's quite another to act like you're the second coming of Nate Silver (whose predictions are nothing short of incredible come election season).

Anyway, I digress. Official pairings are released late this afternoon, and three teams in Iowa will receive NCAA bids this season for just the second time. This year's group of Iowa State, Northern Iowa and Iowa collectively and individually are much better than the 2005 versions. That should make for an interesting week or two (or three?) within our state borders.

I look for Big 12 tournament champion Iowa State to earn a No. 3 seed, Missouri Valley Conference tournament champion Northern Iowa to pick up a No. 4 seed and Big Ten tournament flameout Iowa to earn a No. 7 seed. The Hawkeyes faced seven NCAA tournament teams in non-conference play, finished 12-6 in league action and 7-3 in true road games. That's enough to earn some points with the selection committee despite a semi-low RPI.

Geography is a vital tenet in this year's seeding, and Wisconsin provides an interesting test case. The committee assigns the best seeds to the closest locations with little wiggle room. However, Wisconsin is 430 miles from Omaha, 440 miles from Louisville and 460 miles from Columbus. With Big 12 teams Kansas and Iowa State both eyeing Omaha, it would make sense to shift Wisconsin to one of the other spots. But if the committee adheres strictly to its principles, the Badgers will play in Omaha. That would lack common sense. I guess we'll find out Sunday afternoon.

Here's a final look at NCAA tournament projections before today's final unveiling:

CLEVELAND REGION

1. Kentucky vs. 16. Hampton-Manhattan winner, Louisville, Ky.

8. Butler vs. 9. Purdue, Louisville, Ky.

4. North Carolina vs. 13. Harvard, Jacksonville, Fla.

5. Wichita State vs. 12. Wofford, Jacksonville, Fla.

3. Iowa State vs. 14. North Dakota State, Omaha, Neb.

6. Michigan State vs. 11. Cincinnati, Omaha, Neb.

2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Cal-Irvine, Seattle

7. Oregon vs. 10. Colorado State, Seattle

HOUSTON REGION

1. Wisconsin vs. Robert Morris-North Florida winner, Columbus, Ohio

8. N.C. State vs. 9. Xavier, Columbus, Ohio

4. Utah vs. 13. Eastern Washington, Portland, Ore.

5. SMU vs. 12. Wyoming, Portland, Ore.

3. Notre Dame vs. 14. Valparaiso, Columbus, Ohio

6. Providence vs. 11. Texas-LSU winner, Columbus, Ohio

2. Kansas vs. 15. Georgia State, Omaha, Neb.

7. Iowa vs. 10. Ole Miss, Omaha, Neb.

SYRACUSE REGION

1. Villanova vs. 16. Albany, Pittsburgh

8. Georgia vs. 9. Dayton, Pittsburgh

4. Baylor vs. 13. Belmont, Jacksonville, Fla.

5. Louisville vs. 12. Stephen F. Austin, Jacksonville, Fla.

3. Maryland vs. 14. Northeastern, Pittsburgh

6. Georgetown vs. 11. Temple, Pittsburgh

2. Duke vs. 15. UAB, Charlotte, N.C.

7. VCU vs. 10. Oklahoma State, Charlotte, N.C.

LOS ANGELES REGION

1. Virginia vs. 16. Lafayette, Charlotte, N.C.

8. Ohio State vs. 9. St. John's, Charlotte, N.C.

4. Northern Iowa vs. 13. New Mexico State, Seattle

5. West Virginia vs. 12. Buffalo, Seattle

3. Oklahoma vs. 14. Coastal Carolina, Louisville, Ky.

6. Arkansas vs. 11. BYU-Indiana winner, Louisville, Ky.

2. Arizona vs. 15. Texas Southern, Portland, Ore.

7. San Diego State vs. 10. Davidson, Portland, Ore.

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com