Big 12: Dust in the wind?

"I know this ... a man got to do what he got to do."

- John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath

There's a whiff of dusty, historical irony swirling throughout Big 12 Conference country.

Back in the 1930s, a combination of arid climate, a major drought and massive soil erosion turned the air to pure dust from Canada to Texas. Those black blizzards annihilated agriculture and forced the evacuation of some 2.5 million people in the region known as the Dust Bowl. Now, 80 years later, the universities that comprise the Big 12 are set to evacuate the middle-American league for "greener" pastures.

The Big 12 migration started last year when Colorado bolted for the Pac-10 (now Pac-12) and Nebraska left for the Big Ten. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State briefly flirted with the Pac-10 last summer only to recommit to the Big 12. But this summer, instability one again has returned to the Dust Bowl Conference. After months of rhetoric, Texas A&M announced last week it will leave for another league, expected to be the Southeastern. Other Big 12 schools also are openly considering its future within - or without - the Big 12.

Oklahoma State President Burns Hargis issued a statement that his university and the University of Oklahoma are working together "in the best interest of our institutions and the state of Oklahoma." Oklahoma State owner (err super booster) T. Boone Pickens told The Daily Oklahoman the Big 12 needs to add a school like TCU or "you might as well go west."

University of Oklahoma President David Boren told reporters Friday the school would decide its athletic future within three weeks. An unnamed source told The Daily Oklahoman the school squarely was focused on joining Pac-12.

“I'll put it this way: I don't think there's any chance OU's going to end up being a wallflower,” Boren said.

Boren's comments caught other administrators from other Big 12 schools by surprise. Officials at Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri all pledged support for the Big 12. Missouri Athletic Director Mike Alden told reporters before Saturday's football game in Columbia, Mo., that Boren's comments "reinforce instability" but his school is focusing on "improving Mizzou's brand every day."

"If you're not concerned when a comment like that comes out, then I think that you're being a little bit shortsighted," Alden said.

I was present last year when the Big 12 nearly imploded at its spring meetings in Kansas City. The Big Ten was still in active expansion mode and the Pac-10 had just invited six Big 12 schools to join its league. At that second, it was every school for itself. Colorado and Nebraska left the league in part for self-preservation, and also because of Big 12 uncertainty. What if both schools had stayed in the Big 12, the flirtacious five went to the Pac-10 and, say, Missouri joined the Big Ten? They would have been left out.

To me, it seems certain the Oklahoma schools are headed west, like hundreds of thousands of "Okies" did in the 1930s. If the Pac-12 can work out a living arrangement with Texas and the Longhorn Network, I can see Texas and probably Texas Tech moving to the Pac-12. So what does that leave for the league's other five schools?

Kansas and Missouri are in decent shape, I think. Both have large athletic revenue coffers - Kansas ranks 26th ($71.88 million), Missouri ranks 45th ($55.67 million) based on 2009 figures supplied to the U.S. Department of Education. Missouri has two major metro areas in its borders - St. Louis ranks 21st, Kansas City ranks 31st. Kansas also shares the Kansas City market.

Recent conference realignment is built on football prowess, but Kansas basketball is successful enough to help the school find a major conference. Missouri also has enough athletic success to stay relevant. Additionally Missouri boasts nearly 6 million people and doesn't compete against a major instate rival for revenue. I think both schools are attractive enough to appeal to other major conferences such as the Big East or Southeastern.

On its own, Kansas State might struggle to find a good conference fit. But if linked with Kansas and Missouri, K-State could work its way into the Big East.

Baylor and Iowa State could have the most difficult situation staying relevent. If the Big East invites three Big 12 schools to make its league an even 12, Kansas, Missouri and Kansas State seem likely candidates. But if the Southeastern expands by one or three schools, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech or West Virginia are potential candidates. That could mean more openings in the ACC or Big East, which could help Baylor or Iowa State.

Texas A&M's recent departure has made the Big 12 unstable. If the SEC decides to create more national instability by adding one or three more schools, it could help the soon-to-be-former Big 12 schools continue their seats at the national table. That's the ultimate irony.

Either way, the Big 12 is dust in the wind.