2-Minute Drill: TCU Horned Frogs at Iowa State Cyclones

Breaking down Saturday's Big 12 football game between No. 4 TCU and Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. Kickoff is 2:30 p.m., televised on ABC.

Iowa State rush offense vs. TCU rush defense

TCU has the best rush defense in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs allow only 80.7 yards per game and 2.4 yards per attempt. The run defense is led by linebacker Travin Howard and defensive end Ben Banogu; both have more than five tackles for loss. In total, minus sacks, TCU has 31 tackles for a loss.

STOPPED!! KState converts its first 3rd down of the game earlier in the drive, but 4th down is all TCU! October 14, 2017

STOPPED!! KState converts its first 3rd down of the game earlier in the drive, but 4th down is all TCU! #BeatKState pic.twitter.com/riJHu2jVmL

— TCU Football (@TCUFootball)

Iowa State's offensive line, which has struggled at times this season, is going to have to be on if the Cyclones want any success on the ground. Iowa State is second to last in the Big 12 in rushing, averaging 121.4 yards.

Offensive coordinator Tom Manning needs to find ways to get running back David Montgomery in space if Iowa State wants to have success in the run game.

Advantage: TCU

Iowa State pass offense vs. TCU pass defense

TCU has the best defense in the Big 12 for a reason. It is fast and can cover space quickly. The Horned Frogs are first the Big 12 in pass defense, allowing just 210 yards through the air per game.

Iowa State quarterback Kyle Kempt has made a name for himself being a game manager and taking what he's given. That needs to continue. Manning has done an excellent job of incorporating quick-hitting pass plays, horizontal pass plays and the occasional shot down field. None of those require Kempt to sit in the pocket and go through progressions. He just needs to get the ball in his playmakers' hands and let them work.

Kyle Kempt's Day:October 21, 2017

Kyle Kempt's Day:#RaiseTheStandard #cyclONEnationpic.twitter.com/pgy3TzphFM

— Cyclone Football (@CycloneFB)

3 Touchdowns

192 Yards

27 yard run (longest by a QB this season)

The Cyclones have a talented receiving group, including Matt Eaton, who burst on the scene last week against Texas Tech with two touchdown catches. Iowa State should use all of its offensive weapons in the pass game so TCU stays off balance. That includes Montgomery, who has the ability to catch the ball out of the back field.

Iowa State doesn't put up gaudy numbers in the passing game, throwing for 279 yards per game, but it's an effective 279 yards. And once Iowa State gets in the red zone, big receivers like Allen Lazard and Hakeem Butler are hard to stop.

Advantage: Iowa State

Iowa State rush defense vs. TCU rush offense

Iowa State's run defense is the second best in the Big 12 behind only TCU. The Cyclones allow only 120.4 yards on the ground. The defensive line is led by tackle Ray Lima, who routinely takes up two blockers and allows linebackers like Joel Lanning, Marcel Spears and Willie Harvey to make the stop in the hole. Jon Heacock's defense is disciplined and it shows in the run game.

TCU does have a potent rushing attack that could give Iowa State some trouble. The Horned Frogs use three running backs, two of whom, Darius Anderson and Kyle Hicks, average more than five yards per carry. Anderson and Sewo Olonilua each have six touchdowns. TCU is third in the conference in rushing with 198.3 yards on the ground. If it averaged a yard more per game, it be the conference leader.

Advantage: TCU

Iowa State pass defense vs. TCU pass offense

TCU quarterback Kenny Hill hasn't put up big numbers, but he's consistent and completes his passes at a 70-percent clip. The Horned Frogs have some playmakers on the outside in KaVontae Turpin and John Diarse. But TCU only has two receivers with three or more touchdown receptions.

John Diarse over the 100-yard mark after this strike from Kenny Hill October 22, 2017

John Diarse over the 100-yard mark after this strike from Kenny Hill #BeatKU pic.twitter.com/GalbwY2aDV

— TCU Football (@TCUFootball)

Iowa State needs to keep TCU's speed in front of it and swarm to the ball, like it has done ever since the Iowa game. The Cyclones only allow 232 yards through the air and have eight interceptions, so it could be tough for TCU to get much going in the passing game.

Advantage: Iowa State

Special teams

TCU has one of the most electric returners in college football in Turpin. He averages 16.3 yards a punt return and has a touchdown. On kickoffs, he averages 30 yards with a long of 42. Iowa State punter Colin Downing and his punt unit only allow 0.9 yards per return. He needs to maintain that pace and be smart when punting to Turpin.

You'll be seeing this October 22, 2017

You'll be seeing this #TurpinTime return a lot more we think! #SCTop10 #BeatKU pic.twitter.com/tADpMzdZnc

— TCU Football (@TCUFootball)

The Cyclones have a playmaker of their own in the punt return game in Trever Ryen. Ryen averages 10.5 yards per return and also has taken a punt back for a touchdown.

TCU kicker Jonathan Song is perfect on the year in field goals, going 7-for-7. But he has missed two extra points. TCU as a team has missed three, which is worst in the Big 12. Iowa State kicker Garrett Owens also has made seven field goals, but he's missed two along the way. He is perfect so far with his extra point attempts.

Advantage: TCU

Intangibles

1. Weather — The forecast predicts a cold and windy day. The high is 45 degrees with 10-20 mph winds. Last year, only five days in the Dallas-Fort Worth area had lower highs than 45 degrees.

2. TCU and Trice — In the four meetings Iowa State and TCU have had in Ames, the Horned Frogs came away victorious in all of them. The Cyclones have only beaten the Horned frogs once in eight meetings.

3 First place on the line — The winner will be in the Big 12 driver's seat going forward. If TCU wins, it remains undefeated. If Iowa State wins, it holds the tiebreakers over Oklahoma and TCU.

3 and out

Three keys to victory.

1. Red zone success — Both teams have a lot of success inside opponents' 20. ISU and TCU are 28-for-31 in the red zone. Keeping the opposing team out of the red zone will be key for both teams.

2. Turnovers — Iowa State leads the conference in turnover margin at plus-8. Coach Matt Campbell believes whoever wins the turnover margin will win the game. TCU's turnover margin is at plus-4.

3. Defense — This game is a matchup of the two best defenses in the Big 12. On a cold, windy day, points could be hard to come by, so the defenses have to contain the big play.

Iowa State-TCU prediction

Iowa State will win if ... David Montgomery can find room to work and eat up yards and time on the ground to keep Iowa State's attack balanced and TCU's defense guessing.

TCU will win if ... It can get turnovers on defense. Iowa State has done a superb job of holding on to the football. Kyle Kempt has only thrown one interception, and the Cyclones haven't lost a fumble this year. If TCU can get a few turnovers and get a short field it should have success.

Prediction: TCU 27, Iowa State 24