State cross country capsules

FORT DODGE - Capsules and predictions for the state cross country meet, which begins at 11 a.m. Saturday at Lakeside Golf Course:

CLASS 4A GIRLS

Time - 11 a.m.

Individuals to watch - Defending champion McKenzie Yanek of Pleasant Valley is, without a doubt, the favorite to repeat. The junior ran in 14:05 to win the Muscatine regional by 40 seconds. Jordan Kleve of Johnston is the top challenger; she was third last year and took top honors at the Lewis Central regional. Megan Schott of Des Moines Roosevelt was the champion at the Ames regional and is coming off a fourth-place finish in 2013. Emmie Skopec and Bailey Nock of Iowa City West are top-five possibilities.

Top teams - Johnston was top-ranked heading into regionals and did nothing to threaten its role as front-runner. Fourth last year, the Dragons outran No. 2 Urbandale by a 31-38 margin. The J-Hawks are a title contender, as is Iowa City West, which breezed to the title as Cedar Falls by placing five runners in the top 10. Ames (the 2013 runner-up to West Des Moines Dowling) edged Ankeny Centennial, 41-44, for the crown at Ames, and Pleasant Valley can't be ruled out.

How they'll finish - 1. Johnston, 2. Iowa City West, 3. Urbandale, 4. Ames, 5. Ankeny Centennial.

CLASS 4A BOYS

Time - 11:30 a.m.

Individuals to watch - Seven of last year's top 10 have moved on, leaving a pair of West Des Moines runners as the big-school boys to watch. Daniel Soto of Valley was third last year and took home top honors at the Ames district while Dowling's Ryan Schweizer (10th in 2013) prevailed at Lewis Central. Linn-Mar has three potential contenders in Daniel Murphy, Ryan Murphy and Michael Mather. The elder Murphy was in the mix last year before running into problems and fading all the way to the back of the pack. A last-to-first journey is entirely possible.

Top teams - Metro kingpins Linn-Mar and Cedar Rapids Prairie went at it at Marshalltown last week's regional, with the Lions outrunnng the Hawks by 21 points. Another performance like that, and the Lions will reign in Fort Dodge. The defending champion, Prairie surely will bounce back and run well Saturday. Last year's runner-up, Johnston was the No. 1 team heading into districts, and edged West Des Moines Dowling, 29-39, at Lewis Central. Cedar Falls had four in the top nine in winning its district on its home course.

How they'll finish - 1. Linn-Mar, 2. Johnston, 3. Cedar Rapids Prairie, 4. Cedar Falls, 5. West Des Moines Dowling.

CLASS 3A GIRLS

Time - Noon

Individuals to watch - Each of the top three runners from last year were freshmen. All of them return, but only one (2013 runner-up Joy Ripslinger of Davenport Assumption) as a regional champion. Ripslinger ran 14:58 to capture the Solon regional title by 15 seconds. Grace Gibbons of Gilbert was the 2A champion last year, moved up a class and won the Perry regional race by 30 seconds. Tess Roorda of Pella is the defending 3A champion, but ran third at the Pella region, 41 seconds behind winner Abby Kohut-Jackson of Ballard. Kohut-Jackson was fifth last year.

Top teams - Decorah won by the slimmest margin possible last year, edging MOC-Floyd Valley on a tie-breaker. With six runners back from last year's title team, a repeat certainly is attainable. Amanda Taylor was a regional champion at Manchester, and the Vikings have excellent depth. Gilbert will challenge after winning the 2A title last year. Led by Gibbons, the Tigers had three runners in the top four in dominating the Perry regional. Ballard edged Pella, 43-48, for the Pella regional crown.

How they'll finish - 1. Decorah, 2. Gilbert, 3. Ballard, 4. Pella, 5. MOC-Floyd Valley.

CLASS 3A BOYS

Time - 12:30 p.m.

Individuals to watch - Despite a second-place finish (to teammate Wesley Greder) at the Perry district, Thomas Pollard of Gilbert is the guy to beat. The 2A runner-up last year, Pollard proved himself as an elite distance runner last spring at the Drake Relays and state track. The prime challenger is Center Point-Urbana's Josh Yeager, the fourth-place finisher last year and a 22-second winner at the Solon district. Greder was third in 2A last year.

Top teams - It very well could come down to Gilbert's frontrunners vs. Mount Vernon-Lisbon's balance. It's likely that Gilbert (the 2013 2A runner-up) will have two runners in the top five. Mount Vernon-Lisbon, meanwhile, will rely on the depth that carried it to a 21-point margin at a rugged Solon district. The Mustangs went 3-6-7-9-10 to prevail in a meet that included Wamac Conference rivals Marion and Center Point-Urbana, both of which are more than capable of pushing the top two teams.

How they'll finish - 1. Mount Vernon-Lisbon, 2. Gilbert, 3. Marion, 4. Pella, 5. Center Point-Urbana.

CLASS 2A GIRLS

Time - 1 p.m.

Individuals to watch - Start with duo from Osage. Freshman Ellie Friesen and sophomore Megan Mooberry were rated 1-2 in the latest IATF rankings, and finished 1-2 at the New Hampton regional. The third-place girl at New Hampton, Cascade soph Becca McDermott, is the top returning finisher; she was the 2013 runner-up. Kassidy DeJong of Unity Christian handled the field at the Orange City regional, winning by 15 seconds. She was sixth at state last year.

Top teams - Gilbert won the title last year and ascended to 3A this year, opening the door for a new champion. Unity Christian would appear to be the heir apparent, returning its top five girls from last year's runner-up squad. Cascade was third last year and also has all five of its scorers back. Watch for two other teams to charge into the mix. Osage wasn't at state last year, but Friesen and Mooberry make them a threat. And Monticello could run as many as five freshmen in Fort Dodge. If the Panthers' youth holds up to the pressure, they could do some very big things.

How they'll finish - 1. Monticello, 2. Unity Christian, 3. Osage, 4. Cascade, 5. Western Christian.

CLASS 2A BOYS

Time - 1:30 p.m.

Individuals to watch - After a fourth-place finish last year, Eric Lenz of Tipton moves into the role of favorite. He ran 16:15 to ease to the title of the Columbus Junction district by a 17-second margin. Chase Smith of Garner-Hayfield/Ventura was the champion at New Hampton, pushing past North Fayette Valley's Danny Halva, who placed sixth last year. Aplington-Parkersburg's C.J. May and Haile Duden of Sioux Center were eighth and 10th last year, and both return.

Top teams - After a three-year title run, Monticello no longer appears invincible. But it would be a mistake to rule out another crown, because the Panthers still have good depth. Unity Christian came into the season as a slight favorite in 2A, and won a district title on its home course in impressive fashion. It's possible that the winner will score more than 100 points, and it's probable that it will be one of those two teams.

How they'll finish - 1. Unity Christian, 2. Monticello, 3. Western Christian, 4. Garner-Hayfield/Ventura, 5. East Marshall.

CLASS 1A GIRLS

Time - 2 p.m.

Individuals to watch - History awaits Griswold senior Rebekah Topham, who is bidding to become the state's first four-time champion. Topham ran away from the field at the Panora regional, running in 15:20 and winning by 57 seconds. Where are the challengers? Well, Grace Meyer of Pocahontas Area was third last year, but was beaten at the Holstein regional by Alexis Cook of Missouri Valley. Jasmine Staebler of Clayton Ridge and Gwynne Wright of Pekin have been steady high-end finishers the past couple years.

Top teams - Who do you like: Pekin or Poky? Pekin is the defending champion and is junior-oriented behind Wright, while Pocahontas Area was second in 2013 behind a cast a freshmen. As sophomores, the Meyer twins and Elle Ruffridge went 2-3-4 at Holstein. Haley Schroeder leads Elkader Central's charge to chase the top two, and West Marshall was only 17 points behind Pekin at the Ottumwa regional.

How they'll finish - 1. Pekin, 2. Pocahontas Area, 3. Elkader Central, 4. West Marshall, 5. North Linn.

CLASS 1A BOYS

Time - 2:30 p.m.

Individuals to watch - After a fourth-place finish last year, Andrew Meyer of Bellevue set the bar high with a title at the Solon district. He ran 16:29, 28 seconds ahead of top challenger Evan Mahler of Highland, who finished third last year at state. Ryan Izer of Turkey Valley ruled at the Nashua district, which included 2013 runner-up Peyton Twedt of West Fork. Izer was seventh at state last year.

Top teams - Last year's top two teams (and this year's top two ranked teams) went head-to-head at the Nashua district, and defending champion (Denver) edged this year's No. 1 (West Fork) by a two-point margin. Nothing in that result sways you from assuming they'll be the top two teams at Fort Dodge. Bellevue (a convincing winner at Solon) and Nodaway Valley (just as dominant at Panorama) are the top challengers.

How they'll finish - 1. Denver, 2. West Fork, 3. Bellevue, 4. Nodaway Valley, 5. Fort Dodge St. Edmond.

l Comments: (319) 368-8857; jeff.linder@thegazette.com