El Nino a ‘friend of the Midwest’ according to Iowa climate experts

The El Nino weather pattern - like the current event getting a lot of attention for its ability to bring rain to a drought-stricken California - typically is considered a 'friend of the Midwest,” according to Iowa climate experts.

That means recent government forecasts of a strong El Nino event this winter likely will mean milder conditions for Iowans - and not the heavy precipitation predicted on the West Coast.

'El Nino tends to give us closer to average weather in the Midwest - both for the summer and winter,” said Elwynn Taylor, agricultural meteorologist and climatologist for Iowa State University Extension and Outreach. 'Those are the years we have some of the best yields for the corn and soy beans that mean so much. Summers aren't oppressively hot and winters aren't too cold.”

La Nina weather patterns, on the other hand, have the opposite effect on the Midwest - bringing more extreme conditions - often producing drought, heat waves, and cold snaps.

La Nina phenomena tend to follow El Nino events, Taylor said.

'That increases the chance of drought after an El Nino, if it was very strong,” he said.

El Nino events tend to last an average of 14 months, and the current one started in May, according to Taylor. That means it could wrap by June or July 2016.

'That could be a disaster,” he said. 'If June rain fails, the corn crop fails. That's the rule of thumb.”

El Nino patterns occur when sea surface temperatures warm across the central and east-central Equalatorial Pacific. La Nina patterns result from the opposite - when sea surface temperatures are below average across the east-central Equalatorial Pacific.

As of this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and International Research Institution are predicting the current El Nino will peak in late fall and early winter and qualify among the strongest El Ninos on historical record.

That forecast has gained international attention for its potential to cause extreme weather across the globe and national press for its potential to cause flooding in California.

Taylor said he hasn't done specific forecasting on the current El Nino, but he agrees it will be strong.

What will have more meaning for Iowa, however, is if a La Nina event follows.

'We just finished the second-strongest La Nina in history,” Taylor said, referring to the 2010-2011 event.

That was responsible for the 2012 drought in Texas, California, and the Corn Belt, according to Taylor. For Iowa, the 2012 drought exceeded its 1988 predecessor both in extent and severity, according to State Climatologist Harry Hillaker.

The 1988 drought also involved a strong La Nina event.

'If we were to choose a weather pattern, El Nino would be the one we would go for in Iowa,” Hillaker said. 'Typically, summers are cooler and wetter, winters are warmer and drier, and there are rarely drought issues when El Nino is around.”

Past trends don't guarantee a La Nina will follow, according to Hillaker.

'But, generally, we do have that tendency,” he said. 'That puts the growing season of 2016 on the droughty side in Iowa, based on past experience with what followed other El Ninos.”

And although El Ninos seem to limit extreme conditions for Iowa winters, Hillaker warned about possibly colder and wetter fall weather. He referenced the strong El Nino of 1997-98 that produced heavy snow across Iowa in October 1997 - including 13 inches in Council Bluffs and 7 inches in Cedar Rapids.

In 1991, another El Nino year, Iowa was blasted by a Halloween blizzard and saw some of the coldest November weather in history.

Laura Krouse, owner and operator of Abbe Hills Farm in Mount Vernon, said she's gotten used to extreme weather patterns - whether the result of El Nino, La Nina or something else.

'My opinion on climate change in general is that there are more extreme events, and they're more unpredictable,” she said.

Although this summer has been good for field crops, Krouse said, conditions have been too dry for vegetables, both of which she grows. Irrigation is an option.

'But it's never as good as actual rain,” she said.

In 2012, Krouse said, she went through 1.5 pumps irrigating her crops and lost yield - and a lot of sleep. And she's preparing for another drought-inducing La Nina to follow the current El Nino.

'I'm anticipating having everything under irrigation all the time next year,” she said.