2-Minute Drill: Illinois Fighting Illini

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The numbers show the Fighting Illini have some major problems here. Illinois is 124th in the nation in rush defense, allowing 262.7 yards a game. The Illini have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in six of nine games this season, including two 400-plus games. In conference play, Illinois has allowed 6.8 yards a carry on 254 attempts. One factor that might soften these numbers a bit is that the Illini already have faced Nebraska and Wisconsin, which feature the two best running backs in the conference and the country.

Opponents have rushed for 76 touchdowns in Tim Beckman's 33 games as coach. Conversely, Iowa has allowed 81 in the last eight seasons.

The Illini play a 3-4 defense, with senior Austin Teitsma (6-2, 290) and sophomore Rob Bain (6-3, 300, brother of former Iowa DT Ryan Bain). Star linebacker Earnest Thomas III (6-2, 210) leads the Illini with 8.5 tackles for loss. Weakside linebacker Mason Monheim (6-1, 235) is fourth in the Big Ten with 9.2 tackles a game.

Is it the bodies? Is it the scheme? Is it the opponent? It's probably been a little of all three.

Now, is Iowa in any position to take advantage this? Minnesota defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys was bent on stopping Iowa's run game with the fullback in the backfield. With two weeks to scheme, the Gophers knew what was coming and flowed to the ball. Iowa RB Mark Weisman said this week he missed a couple of runs. That is true, but he never got out of the blocks. Iowa didn't land the second-level blocks it did against Northwestern and was held to 84 rushing yards, a season low.

Illinois defensive coordinator Tim Banks also has had two weeks to scheme. This is probably more of a hat-on-hat game here and that favors Iowa.

Advantage: Iowa

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Three of the Illini's top five tacklers are defensive backs. Strong safety Zane Petty and free safety Taylor Barton have combined for 155 tackles through nine games. That's far too high for a safety tandem. Has it affected coverage? Offenses have hit so well on the run the pass defense sort of gets off the hook.

Part of that is personnel, too, and cornerback V'Angelo Bentley (5-10, 190) is formidable. He returned a fumble 15 yards for a TD that gave Illinois its season-defining (so far) victory over Minnesota in its last game (it also was Beckman's first Big Ten victory at Memorial Stadium).

For pass defenses to have a chance, there needs to be disruption. Illinois is tied for 12th in the Big Ten with 17 sacks. The Illini are 13th in the league with 29 pass breakups and last in the league with four interceptions. Opponents have logged a 136.8 pass efficiency against Illinois, last in the B1G. Opponents have thrown for 14 TD passes, 13th in the league. Expect Illinois to blitz a lot. It's going to have to manufacture pressure.

Again, is Iowa equipped to take advantage? After last week, the answer has to be probably not. Then again, will Illinois turn out to be a Northwestern-level (possibly) or Minnesota-level (Illinois did beat the Gophers) opponent?

Under quarterback Jake Rudock, Iowa's offense has worked wonderfully when it gains 4.0 yards a carry. Last week, it was 2.80 yards a carry. Also last week, Iowa allowed four sacks. In its three losses this year, Iowa has allowed 11 sacks. When protection held, Iowa receivers couldn't beat man-to-man coverage, forcing Rudock to throw short of the sticks on third down, something that has grown raw with Iowa fandom, as it should. The trigger response is to blame the QB for choosing that throw, but the reality is receivers need to be open, protection needs to hold up.

Rudock had his problems. The interception he threw hung up in the wind and was well short, but it's not all QB.

'To be successful [in the passing game] you have to protect,' Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. 'You have to give the quarterback time to get his feet set and go through his reads and progression, if there are some. But it all goes together. We've got to run better routes, get free better and catch the ball when it's there.'

Advantage: Push

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In their last outing against Ohio State, the Illini lost right guard Ted Karras for the rest of the season with a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee. Yes, you've heard that name. Ted Karas is the seventh member of his family to play football in the Big Ten, including his great-uncle, Alex Karras, who won the Outland Trophy as a defensive tackle at Iowa and was named to the Pro Bowl four times in the NFL with the Detroit Lions before going into acting, including a starring role in the 1980s sitcom 'Webster.'

Sophomore Joe Spencer (6-4, 300) could get the start. This will be the fourth different starting combination on the offensive line this season. Beckman said this week that left tackle Simon Cvijanovic, who suffered an undisclosed injury at Ohio State, is likely to play.

If it seems as though every team in the Big Ten West has a standout running back, it's because they do. Illinois has sophomore Josh Ferguson (5-10, 195). He is one of seven FBS backs with more than 550 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards. He averages 5.02 yards on 110 carries and has 33 receptions for 306 yards (13th in the Big Ten with 95.3 all purpose yards).

After last week's debacle against the jet sweep, you have to give Illinois' roster a cursory check for candidates. Freshman wide receiver Mike Dudek (5-11, 185) is a possibility. He has three carries. Oddly, senior tight end Jon Davis (6-3, 240) has nine carries. There's no speedster like Minnesota's KJ Maye, but you'll see the jet sweep.

Wisconsin and Nebraska will challenge the interior of Iowa's defense. Don't expect that from Illinois. It's just not built for it and it's missing a three-year starter at right guard.

Iowa has had a week to take it in regard to perimeter defense. The fix repeated by players this week was 'get off blocks.' That's easier said than done when you have young players (two of the three starters at linebacker today will be freshman) playing interior positions. Linebacker is a collision position and Iowa is too young there right now to trade punches. Save this thought for Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Advantage: Iowa

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Here's where Illinois has a chance to make it a game. The Illini welcome back sophomore quarterback Wes Lunt (6-5, 225) to the lineup. He's missed the last three games with a broken fibula. (If Lunt matters in a big way today, Illinois can thank the double bye week for the extra time to heal.)

Here's what Illinois missed in Lunt's absence: The Oklahoma State transfer has 13 TD passes and just three interceptions. He averages 8.2 yards a pass attempt, an above-average, winning number. Lunt has 1,569 yards (just 84 fewer yards than Iowa's Rudock in three fewer games) in those five games (a 313.8-yard average that would lead the conference if he had enough attempts). Illinois averaged 442 yards in Lunt's five starts. In the four games that he's missed that number is 283.

Illinois has the receivers to back up Lunt. Dudek, a true freshman from Naperville, has been a marvel. In the first quarter against Ohio State, Dudek had a 56-yard catch-and-run to break former Illini star Arrelious Benn's school record (676 yards in 2007) for receiving yards by a freshman (45 receptions, 707 yards, 15.7 yards a reception).

Junior Geronimo Allison (6-4, 195) has 33 catches for 504 yards (15.2 yards a catch) and five TDs. He transferred in from Iowa Western Community College in Council Bluffs.

With Lunt coming off a broken leg and Illinois missing a starting guard, Iowa should be able to put pressure on, and probably without a lot of blitzing or sub-packaging.

Minnesota worked Iowa over with play-action last week. Can Illinois run the ball enough to freeze linebackers and secondary? It wasn't all play-action, though. Iowa's linebackers failed to get depth and allowed easy throws to the tight end last week. Some of the matchups weren't passed off correctly, which in one case allowed TE Maxx Williams a chance to make a 25-yard catch on a third-and-7. One play-action pass did go over cornerback Desmond King's head for a 44-yard TD.

Will Lunt be the best QB Iowa faces in the West Division? Maybe. There's potential for damage here if Iowa can't disrupt.

Advantage: Illinois

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The star of the show here, maybe for both teams, is Illinois punter Justin DuVernois. The senior has career-best 45.7 average the season, leading the B1G and ranking 6th in FBS. He has 16 punts of 50-plus yards this season. Career-wise, he's No. 2 in Illinois history with a 41.7 career average. When opponents do return his punts, they average 9.5 yards, which is 11th in the league.

Illinois kickers Tyler Zalewski and David Reisner have combined for 2 of 6. The Illini haven't made a field goal since Sept. 20 (a 19-yarder against Texas State) and have attempted just two since. How does that even happen?

Junior V'Angelo Bentley had a 40-yard punt return against Texas State — he also had a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown in that game — and a 67-yard kickoff return in the opener against Youngstown State. He also returned that fumble against Minnesota. He's eighth in the league with 22.5 yards a return. He's fifth in the league with 10.2 yard per punt return.

Illinois is 13th in the Big Ten on kick return, allowing 22.5 yards a return. And here we are with the theme this week. Is Iowa in position to take advantage?

Last week, freshman Jonathan Parker showed his inexperience. He didn't field kickoffs cleanly, either moving his feet while catching the ball or fumbling. Iowa paid dearly in the field position department. The Hawkeyes entered last week leading the Big Ten in kick returns, averaging 26.5 yards a return. On six returns against the Gophers, Iowa averaged 13.8 yards. That led to an average starting field position of its own 19-yard line, including five starts inside its 15. That eventually led to Gophers points.

Parker had five returns for 13.4 yards, dropping his season average from 32.4 to 25.6. He can fix this.

Is Iowa punter fixable? Junior Connor Kornbrath had one tipped against the Gophers. The ensuing 14-yarder gave UM primo field position and eventually led to a TD. Kornbrath can't block for himself, but Iowa's punters (junior Dillon Kidd included) have averaged just 37.9 a punt (11th in the Big Ten).

Advantage: Iowa

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1. What are they playing for? — Iowa isn't out of the Big Ten West race. Minnesota obviously has a leg up on the Hawkeyes, but the Gophers finish with Ohio State at TCF Bank Stadium and then travel to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Nebraska and Wisconsin face each other this week and then the Badgers stop in Iowa City before the Huskers close at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa has yet to put up a performance that would tell you it could go punch-for-punch with Wisconsin and Nebraska, but the Hawkeyes are not out of it.

The most popular answer to the 'hot seat' question in the Big Ten has been Tim Beckman. It's his third year in Champaign. Three-fourths of the roster is his recruits. The team has to have that connection that keeps the dogs of hot seats away from their coach's heels. Also, the Illini need to win two of their next three for bowl eligibility. Illinois is at the point where a bowl, any bowl, would feel pretty good.

There's plenty to play for on both sides.

2. Character — Perhaps the biggest kick in the facemask last week was Minnesota's first drive of the second half. The Gophers drove 75 yards on a methodical 11 plays to score a TD for a 42-7 lead. That was a pin. Iowa was down and counting lights and waiting for it to be over ... on the first drive of the second half. The response after a 28-0 second quarter was horrible. Yes, some days are just bad days, but that struck at the heart of what Iowa football has been under Ferentz. It's a bunch of cusses that hope to get you in the cradle at the edge of the mat. That wasn't there last week. That's alarming in that this team doesn't have it or can't stop bad things from happening.

3. Sleepy football atmospheres — Capacity at Illinois' Memorial Stadium is 60,670. Here are the attendance numbers for the Illini's five home games: 36,234 (Youngstown State), 38,561 (Western Kentucky), 41,019 (Texas State), 45,046 (Purdue) and 44,437 (Minnesota). This game kicks off at 11 a.m., so count out students (kidding, kidding).

How would a sleepy atmosphere affect the Hawkeyes? Well, it shouldn't. Last week's effort will be the emotional driver. How would it affect Illinois? Well, it won't be rocking and it hasn't been rocking, so the Illini are kind of used to this, but it can't feel good when you're hitting 72 percent of capacity (which Illinois did last year, averaging 43,787 per home game, which was second-to-last in the Big Ten behind Northwestern).

Advantage: Iowa

Iowa will win if ...

The Hawkeyes can average 4 yards a carry and cause disruption for Illinois' passing game. Both of these can happen. With the running game, it'll be interest to see how the Hawkeyes get there, though.

Illinois will win if ...

The Illini can protect QB Wes Lunt and keep get Iowa's defense in space. Forget how Minnesota beat Iowa with speed, running the ball on the perimeter. This week, Illinois' best chance will be isolating a wide receiver on a linebacker and squeezing a big play out of that.

Prediction: Iowa 31, Illinois 21