Wisconsin governor Walker early leader in 2016 Iowa caucus field

DES MOINES - Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is looking more and more like the man to beat in Iowa's 2016 first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Showing strength among self-identified 'very conservatives” and 'tea party” voters, Walker captured the support of 25 percent of likely Republican caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday morning.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul follows in a distant second with 13 percent.

Walker is 'taking the Republican political world by storm,” according to Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Peter Brown. 'He's gone from being unknown outside Wisconsin to the hot candidate, poised to become the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.”

Walker had something of a coming-out party last month at the Iowa Freedom Summit that featured several conservative speakers, including a number of other potential 2016 candidates. He has shown strength in several polls since then,

'Front-runner status would make it easier for Gov. Walker to raise money and recruit top talent for his staff, but it also puts a target on his back,” Brown said.

Much of his strength comes from the conservative base of Iowa GOP caucusgoers, Quinnipiac found. Voters who identify as 'very conservative” make up 45 percent of the caucus participants surveyed by the independent. Tea Party supporters make up 32 percent of likely caucusgoers and Walker gets 33 percent of that Tea Party vote.

In addition to the 25 percent who named Walker as their first choice for the GOP nomination, he received 13 percent when caucus participants name their second choice, with 11 percent for Bush and 9 percent each for former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Paul.

In a combination of first and second choices, Walker tops the list with 37 percent, with 21 percent for Paul, 20 percent for Bush, 19 percent for physician Ben Carson and 18 percent for Huckabee.

There is a horse race for second place, with 13 percent for Paul, 11 percent each for Carson and Huckabee and 10 percent for Bush. No other candidate is above 5 percent and 9 percent are undecided.

Perhaps more impressive than Walker's 12-point lead over his nearest rival for the caucus crown, Brown said, is that 57 percent of likely GOP caucus participants view him favorably, to only 7 percent who view him unfavorably.

'A heck of a first impression,” Brown said.

However, he added a caution: Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Huckabee won the last two caucuses 'and neither came close to the nomination.”

The candidates with the biggest negatives in Iowa are Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, as each gets 26 percent when likely Republican caucus participants name a candidate they 'would definitely not support.”

Christie and Bush also are lowest in favorability, with mixed or negative scores:

41 - 40 percent favorable/unfavorable for Bush;

30 - 54 percent favorable/unfavorable for Christie;

57 - 7 percent favorable/unfavorable for Walker;

51 - 5 percent favorable/unfavorable for Carson;

46 - 19 percent favorable/unfavorable for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;

63 - 24 percent favorable/unfavorable for Huckabee;

41 - 9 percent favorable/unfavorable for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal;

17 - 6 percent favorable/unfavorable for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, with 77 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion;

58 - 22 percent favorable/unfavorable for Paul;

56 - 22 percent favorable/unfavorable for Perry;

48 - 15 percent favorable/unfavorable for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;

54 - 23 percent favorable/unfavorable for Santorum.

In other Quinnipiac findings:

Walker gets 26 percent of men and 22 percent of women;

Voters who say they are moderate or liberal go 21 percent for Paul and 17 percent for Bush;

By a 64 - 21 percent margin, likely Iowa Republican caucus participants prefer a presidential candidate with experience as a governor or administrator, rather than experience as a member of Congress.

Only 8 percent of caucus participants are less likely to vote for Walker because he does not have a college degree, while 82 percent say that makes no difference in their vote.

Because his father and brother were presidents, 25 percent say they are less likely to vote for Jeb Bush, but 63 percent say it makes no difference.

From Feb. 5-15, Quinnipiac live interviewers called landlines and cellphones to survey 1,089 Iowa voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.