Iowa Senate races likely to draw money, attention

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - The fight for control of the Iowa Senate is expected to be the centerpiece of the 2012 election in the state, eclipsed only by the choice for president.

Leaders of both parties said the effort to gain a majority in the Senate will likely result in record-breaking spending, reflecting the importance of the chamber after Republicans gained a big majority in the state House and took control of the governor's office. Democrats have used their slim majority in the Senate to block a variety of GOP efforts, including placing a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage on the ballot, approving more abortion restrictions and reducing spending on preschool.

Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, said he expects campaign contributions to pour in from national groups, the two parties and in-state donors, reflecting the fact that Iowa will be among the few states where Republicans have a new chance to take nearly complete control of state government.

"We believe the national focus will be on the Iowa Senate races," McKinley said.

McKinley spoke during a break of a conservative political action committee meeting, called GOPAC, in Indianapolis. He said the Iowa Senate races were a hot topic at that four-day gathering.

"We're targeted as one of the top three in the country," said McKinley, who declined to name the other top states.

Because the stakes are so high, Democratic strategist Ron Parker said spending by a typical Senate candidate could grow from $75,000 to $100,000 in the last election cycle to $150,000 or more this time.

Democrats said they understand the stakes in the race for the 30 Senate seats that will be on the ballot.

"There's some excitement about it," said Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs. "There's some recognition about how important it is."

The focus on the Senate comes as even Democrats acknowledge it's doubtful they could overcome the Republicans' commanding 60 seat-to-40 seat edge in the House.

"Certainly there is going to be some perception that it's going to be hard for the Republicans to lose the House," said Gronstal. "I think most people will say the Senate is where the action is at this point."

Redistricting will add some uncertainty to the election, as the new map left six districts with more than one incumbent lawmaker, and seven districts where there is no incumbent.

With so many seats up for grabs and the Democrats holding only a two-seat majority, Republicans said they're optimistic about taking control.

"Just mathematically and with the mood of the country, history seems to be on the side of Republicans," said Ed Failor Jr., a veteran GOP strategist and lobbyist. "If you forced me to bet, I'd bet on Republicans taking control."

Parker disagreed, arguing that the two parties would likely to split evenly in districts where incumbents are paired and that Democrats would make gains in the open districts.

"The open seats clearly favor us. The registration is in our favor," said Parker.

Statewide, Republicans have narrowed the voter registration gap. Democrats once held an edge of more than 100,000, but that was down to about 35,000 in registration number as of Aug. 1.

The new maps have already claimed some victims.

After he was tossed into an overwhelmingly Republican district, Senate President Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg, announced he wouldn't seek another term, ending a legislative career that spanned more than 50 years.

"It's time," Kibbie said.

McKinley said Republican activists throughout the state were eager to seek a Senate seat, sensing a tide running in their direction.

"It's almost an embarrassment of riches when it comes to recruiting," said McKinley.

The upcoming election will put pressure on legislative leaders to adjourn next year's session early, giving lawmakers time to campaign in their new districts. The Legislature alternates the length of sessions each year - next year is scheduled to be a shorter, 100-day gathering.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, D-Des Moines, said he hopes the focus of attention and money on the Senate will help Democrats pick up seats in the House.

"Everyone believes House Democrats are going to pick up seats," he said. "The question is how many."