Vernon poll finds 1st District Democratic race essentially tied

CEDAR RAPIDS - The race for the 2016 Democratic nomination in Iowa's U.S. House 1st District is essentially tied with Monica Vernon holding a slight lead over Pat Murphy that is within the margin of error despite his significant name identification advantage, according to a poll commissioned by her campaign.

The poll of 500 likely June 2016 Democratic primary voters released Wednesday found Vernon, a Cedar Rapids City Council member and former business owner, with a 40 percent to 38 percent lead over Murphy, who was the party's 2014 nominee. However, the margin of error in the poll that was conducted Oct. 5-8 by phone - including 30 percent cellphones - by professional interviewers, is plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Cedar Falls businessman Gary Kroeger had the support of 6 percent of those polled by Washington-based Anzalone Liszt Grove Research. Sixteen percent were undecided.

Murphy begins with a 12-point advantage in name identification over Vernon, while Kroeger is relatively unknown, according to the poll.

While the lead is slim, it is significantly different from a similar poll Murphy, the former speaker of the Iowa House, released in July before entering the race. That poll showed him with a 9-point lead over Vernon.

Murphy outpolled Vernon 43 percent to 34 percent in a survey of 350 likely Democratic primary voters in the poll by Myers Research, a Washington, D.C.-based polling firm. Kroeger was the first choice of 12 percent.

Murphy and Vernon were the top finishers in a five-way Democratic primary for an open-seat U.S. House race in 2014. Murphy won the primary but lost in the general election to Rod Blum.

According to Vernon's poll, 54 percent of voters give her a favorable rating while Murphy is viewed favorable by 64 percent.

Vernon leads Murphy 53 percent to 39 percent among the 51 percent of voters who know both candidates. Of those who voted in the June 2014 primary, Vernon now leads Murphy 44 to 38 percent.