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Iowa football #MusterOneUp Mailbag: Is Nate Stanley the last QB of the Kirk Ferentz era?
Marc Morehouse
Sep. 28, 2017 1:00 pm
One factlet that shows the competitiveness of the Kirk Ferentz Hawkeyes and Mark Dantonio Spartans is their respective records against the schools.
Ferentz is 7-7 against Michigan State. Dantonio is 4-4 against Iowa.
More?
Iowa leads the series 23-21-2.
How about one more?
In East Lansing, the series is tied 10-10-1.
When there's a Waning Gibbous Moon, the series is ... well, you don't want to know.
Michigan State (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) is coming off a 3-9 mark in 2016. The Hawkeyes (3-1, 0-1) have spanned a world of emotion in the first four weeks of the season.
A nice 16-13 victory is going to set the course for one of these teams. Yes, 16-13 was the score of the 2015 Big Ten title game, when Michigan State completed a 22-play drive to hold off the Hawkeyes.
One more factlet that shows how tightly contested games between the Ferentz Hawkeyes and Dantonio Spartans?
In eight meetings between Ferentz and Dantonio, there have been four games decided by three or fewer points. There have been five games decided by less than a touchdown. There also have been four games in which neither team made it out of the teens.
Welcome to 'Muster One Up' mailbag No. 5. That one guy keeps emailing. Says he's going to tell my mom if I keep this up.
I'm always looking for contributions on Twitter, Facebook or email. Questions, comments, over/unders, please use the #MusterOneUp hashtag on Twitter.
#MusterOneUp Is Nate Stanley the final starting QB of the KF era?
— Tony Delaney (@CoachDelaney6)
Boy, this first step is a doozy.
It's 2017. Stanley is a sophomore. He's probably the guy (I'm dropping a courtesy 'probably' in here) for the next three years. So, where does that put the timeline? Iowa will be in search of a new QB in 2020.
Quarterbacks coach Ken O'Keefe will be at the end of his three-year deal. Kirk Ferentz will be 65 in August 2020. Brian Ferentz will be 37.
With the numbers in front of you like this, there's a lot of solid logic for Stanley being the final QB of the Kirk Ferentz era.
Penn State coach James Franklin is 45 and he's in his fourth year at PSU. Jeff Brohm is in year 1 at Purdue and looking darn good at 46. Of course, preternaturally young Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is 36.
The more you look at the ages of peer coaches, the more I believe yes. I'm sure Ferentz remembers how Hayden Fry finished his career. Fry retired after the 1998 season at age 69. Iowa finished 3-8 that year with the Gophers crushing Iowa 49-7 in Fry's finale. It was the worst season of Fry's 20-year career in Iowa City.
A fitting send-off would've been after the Hawkeyes shutout Texas Tech, 27-0, in the 1996 Alamo Bowl. By 2020, legacy and sound handoff to the next coach might be driving forces for Kirk Ferentz.
What do you make of the TE rotation/usage so far this year? September 27, 2017
What do you make of the TE rotation/usage so far this year? #MusterOneUp
— Jordan Hansen (@jordyhansen)
I actually love it.
Sophomore Noah Fant has shown he's a terrific 'move' tight end. When Iowa wants a blocker tight end, redshirt freshman T.J. Hockenson is the guy.
They've combined for 13 catches for 172 yards and four TDs. Going into the season, I thought we'd see a lot of Fant, at least as a receiving threat, and thought the inline tight ends would be Peter Pekar and Nate Wieting (who's just returning from an injury). They had the experience and requisite size. Credit to Hockenson for upsetting that order.
With Anthony Torres (2018) and Logan Lee (2019) committed, Iowa is good here. Maybe really good.
Over/under 3 turnovers total for the game? September 27, 2017
Over/under 3 turnovers total for the game? #musteroneup
— Leo Doyle (@ledoylinator)
That's a good number. I'll go under. Michigan State is the one that has to keep up this end of the bargain. The Spartans are minus-6 in turnover margin and its eight giveaways are 98th in the nation.
Eat Klondike Bars before the game, Spartans. Or don't. You know, how ever you look at it.
Stanley's throws seem to swerve between rockets and floaters. That a nerves thing, in your opinion? September 27, 2017
Stanley's throws seem to swerve between rockets and floaters. That a nerves thing, in your opinion? #MusterOneUp
— Enjoy The Season (@DouglasABarrett)
One thing that fascinates me about QB play is where does this precision training come from? Especially for Iowa QB Nate Stanley, who, by all accounts, wasn't a big college camp recruit. I'm not naive. It seems everyone has a personal QB coach (Jake Rudock for sure did; can't remember on Beathard).
Stanley didn't hop off the kayak and start throwing footballs through the clown's mouth. Lots of training goes into that. Still . . . it's his first time through. The strong arm is there. The touch has been wavy. Great when it's been there and costly when it hasn't.
Still, Stanley has been a plus, bigger in some games than others so far. Don't reach for the eject button. Keep in mind, Iowa is undergoing a passing game rebuild.
do u see coaches using underclass RBs to spell Wadley more, or do u see him being overworked in the next few games? September 27, 2017
do u see coaches using underclass RBs to spell Wadley more, or do u see him being overworked in the next few games? #MusterOneUp
— Jim Jorgensen (@kidiowa)
Going into North Texas, Ferentz did say that he thought the Iowa State game pushed RB Akrum Wadley to his capacity. That was a 28-carry, four-reception day. The 28 carries were a career high. Against North Texas, it cycled down to 10.
Last week, Wadley had 23 touches and I think that's about the right number.
Optimum Wadley is probably 20 carries and five to eight receptions. Iowa wants to win, so it wants to give Wadley the ball. You never know with him. Any play is a home run.
That said, Iowa is going to have to take the Bubble Wrap off freshmen Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin. I'm not sure when. I'd be hesitant to do it this week, but I also don't know how you can avoid it against Michigan State.
Does this offense ache for a 220-pound power back? Sure, yeah. But the way this offense is currently constructed, and given Wadley's clutchness this season, the ball has to get to his hands. Probably not 30 times a game.
O/U Season win total at 7. September 27, 2017
O/U Season win total at 7. #MusterOneUp
— Paul McMorris (@paulmcmorris411)
I'm a push, but let's talk after Michigan State. I wrote and tweeted all summer that this game is extremely important for the 2017 Hawkeyes. Michigan State was 3-9 last season, but it didn't drop off the face of the earth.
#musteroneup To early to call this game this week vs msu a must win?? Seems to be a must win to keep from 2006 happening??
— Dustin Feldman (@feldy53)
No, it's not too early.
Kirk Ferentz teams have started the Big Ten season 0-2 just three times in his 19-plus seasons — 1999 (1-10 will do that), 2007 (ended up 6-6, 4-4 in the league and bowl-less) and 2008 (an Iowa team that ended up being a wood chipper — 9-4, 5-3 B1G — after a slow start).
Given Wisconsin's schedule, 0-2 would put Iowa in a huge hole in the Big Ten West.
And, wow, good recall on 2006, a team that finished 1-6 after a 5-1 start. Just goes to show, you never know.
Thoughts on getting backup LBs playing time? Necessary or no? Bower out for nickel, but Jewell & Niemann played a ton. September 27, 2017
Thoughts on getting backup LBs playing time? Necessary or no? Bower out for nickel, but Jewell & Niemann played a ton. #MusterOneUp
— Paul McMorris (@paulmcmorris411)
This is a logical thought, makes total sense. It's just not industry standard. You don't see a ton of rotation at the linebacker spot for many teams. Plus, imagine giving up a touchdown with Josey Jewell off the field.
That said, 100 snaps last week for Jewell and Ben Niemann. And for that matter, 100 snaps for Miles Taylor, Amani Hooker, Josh Jackson and Manny Rugamba. The way Phil Parker has used dime and nickel packages this season has given the secondary a few options if a rotation becomes something Parker considers (I don't think it will).
Sophomore Amani Jones has been a terror on special teams (by the way, Hooker said he, Jones and Kevin Ward refer to themselves as 'savage backs,' because they were — now that Hooker is a starter, he's off a few special teams units — on every special team). I don't see him going in for Jewell. I don't see Aaron Mends taken plays off Bo Bower's plate.
You have to throttle snaps for D-linemen. They're huge guys spilling calories every play. Linebackers are made for this, that's the thought, anyway.
#MusterOneUp KF said last week that improvement needed to 'speed up'. Did you see that last Sat night?
— Josh W. Willis (@cjbbwillis)
Yes and no.
I'll use Hooker as an example for 'yes.' He didn't seem to miss any coverages, had 13 tackles and broke up a pass. That was his first start and he looked ready.
The running game never got out of the kitchen. That really needs to speed up. Yeah, if you could have that ready by Saturday at 3, that'd be great. Alas, football is not dry cleaning.
Snyder might be the new Ott...so is Snyder playing next week? September 27, 2017
Snyder might be the new Ott...so is Snyder playing next week? #MusterOneUp
— Derek (@Derek_IA)
1. It's a little different situation than Ott, but if you think the medical hardship will be there for safety Brandon Snyder, don't think that. He already redshirted. It's probably not happening.
2. That was one shocking bit of news from Ferentz this week. OK, maybe shocking is overstating it. The last time I talked to Snyder was media day. He was very clear-eyed on the topic and seemed at peace with this being an injury season.
But he never said he shut the door, and here he is. Or here he might be. Ferentz made it sound like maybe next week against Illinois. Iowa could use his veteran presence and physicality.
#MusterOneUp If B. Snyder comes back healthy could he replace Taylor at SS and would it improve the defense? Taylor just seems off a bit.
— Roger Bachman (@puffbach)
I think that would be a possibility. Remember, last week Ferentz said safety would be a rotation. It was a 100-play game for the defense and junior Jake Gervase didn't play a snap. I think that says Hooker is here to stay at safety. Taylor lost his gig to Anthony Gair last season. The question is Snyder's health. We're talking the safety position and an ACL. Hey, Ferentz said he'll play this season. You probably hope that means more than last week's safety rotation.
Can we just damn the torpedoes & go full speed ahead with Epenesa now? It's worth the risk/reward ratio. Dude wreaks havoc. September 27, 2017
Can we just damn the torpedoes & go full speed ahead with Epenesa now? It's worth the risk/reward ratio. Dude wreaks havoc. #MusterOneUp
— Chris Bryant (@detroithawkeye)
#MusterOneUp To keep AJE on field, without contain issues, could he play DT on 1st/2nd Down, Slide Outside on 3rd? Switch w/M Nelson?
— anthony miller (@milleryep77)
I think he could. I'm starting to think freshman DE A.J. Epenesa could do a lot of things.
That said, I don't see him playing DT. So far, he's played like a thoroughbred defensive end. You have to give Iowa credit on this. Most times, when Ferentz and staff know they've got something, they leave it be. I'd keep Epenesa at end.
Watch how Iowa DEs play the read-option. They're taught to squeeze inside and take away the inside rush lane. Outside contain then falls on linebackers and defensive backs. I don't think it's contain for Epenesa. It might be a strength issue playing two-gap against offensive tackles and tight ends. He might also not fully have the scheme digested.
Whatever it is, he played 39 snaps last week, a career high. I don't see that shrinking.
I liked 'damn the torpedoes.' But I would've gone 'cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.' Or is it 'hogs of war'?
How good has Nate Stanley truly been? He seems to be doing everything right & is clutch. Hawk fans should be excited 4 future. September 27, 2017
How good has Nate Stanley truly been? He seems to be doing everything right & is clutch. Hawk fans should be excited 4 future. #MusterOneUp
— Austin Hames (@azhawk911)
Let's check some clutch numbers:
— In second halves and overtime, Stanley has completed 34 of 53 (64.2 percent completion rate).
— In just the fourth quarter, Stanley is 13 of 22 (59.1 percent) for 251 yards three TDs, no picks and a passer rating of 199.93.
— On third-and-10 or more yards, Stanley has completed 10 of 13 for 95 yards, a passer rating of 138.31 and five first downs.
— When the Hawkeyes have been down from 1 to 7 points this year, Stanley has completed 34 of 52 (65.4 percent) for 449 yards, eight TDs, no picks and a 188.69 passer rating.
It might be time for Brian Ferentz to examine how much he's giving him to do, especially with the running game still stuck at less than 4 yards a carry.
aaron mends is_____________________get more plays wen? September 27, 2017
aaron mends is_____________________get more plays wen? #MusterOneUp
— j.o. (@jayojayo54)
Junior linebacker Aaron Mends has made important contributions on special teams this year. He's one of Iowa's mainstays there. I don't want to throw shade on that. Lots of scholarship players go through the program and don't become starters. There's nothing wrong with that. They usually find a way to contribute on special teams, and Mends is doing just that.
When will he play more? Bo Bower is a senior, so the weakside spot will open next year. I think it'll be a competition between Mends and Amani Jones.
Akrum Wadley is a stud! He's a different player than say Barkley but damn he's good. Need to find ways to get him in space. September 27, 2017
Akrum Wadley is a stud! He's a different player than say Barkley but damn he's good. Need to find ways to get him in space. #MusterOneUp
— Austin Hames (@azhawk911)
This makes me wonder if Iowa doesn't miss the 220-pound running back. If Iowa had that guy to lean on, it could be more creative with Wadley. It would keep defenses pinned inside, at least a little more.
When Wadley found space last week, it was organically. His second-half TDs beat blitzes and did put him in space (a little read-option look on the 35-yard TD). Right now, Wadley in the slot is such a departure that defenses trip over themselves to defend it.
O/U on touches Wadley gets this week? Have to think they make an emphasis on getting him the ball this week. I'll say 29.5 September 27, 2017
O/U on touches Wadley gets this week? Have to think they make an emphasis on getting him the ball this week. I'll say 29.5 #musteroneup https://t.co/MQtgAB7DGq
— Matt LaCasse (@MattLaCasse)
It depends on the flow and what Michigan State tries on defense, but I'd go under 29.5.
Why? This game will be a wrestle-off. I'm surprised I haven't gotten a Toren Young o/u number of carries, which I would set at 10.
Will we see Young and/or Kelly-Martin with increased roles this week? September 27, 2017
Will we see Young and/or Kelly-Martin with increased roles this week? #MusterOneUp #InKirkWeTrust
— Matt W (@ChinLovesIowa)
Oh hey, there it is. I do see that. I might be relying too much on 'what has been' in this series, but I really think a back like Young almost needs to have a say in this for the Hawkeyes. Then again, he's a freshman and this is a Big Ten road game.
OK, maybe the o/u on carries for Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin in this game is 10. Is that enough to matter? Hard to say, but right now, I'm looking at taking a few touches off Wadley's plate.
Despite the L, where does Iowa holding PSU rank in the pantheon of great "bend but don't break" games? September 27, 2017
Despite the L, where does Iowa holding PSU rank in the pantheon of great "bend but don't break" games? #musteroneup
— HARRISON (@HD_starr)
I'd say maybe No. 2, but that's up to you guys.
My No. 1? Iowa's 29-27 victory at Minnesota in 2004.
The Gophers rushed 54 times for 333 yards. Marion Barber III rushed for 167 yards, and Laurence Maroney went for 156 and three TDs.
Chad Greenway's tackle for loss pushed Minnesota's last-second FG attempt just that far off. That was one nutty game.
Who do you think ends up with the better season and then the better career at Iowa: AJE or A. Nelson. September 27, 2017
Who do you think ends up with the better season and then the better career at Iowa: AJE or A. Nelson. #MusterOneUp
— Andrew Twachtmann (@States111)
Oh my goodness. Can I just file this under 'good problems to have'?
I think Iowa is just scratching the surface on Nelson. Does it feel like Epenesa is a more explosive athlete? Maybe a hair, so I'll give him that edge.
Please, don't tell Anthony Nelson, who has the physical tools and seems to have a strong mentality for the game. O-lineman Boone Myers said this week that Nelson's length makes him a tough out. Also, Myers said Nelson isn't afraid to try new things and fail in practice. That tells me Nelson is a thinker and likes to self-scout. That's a winner.
Which B1G coach would top the list of least likely to drink a beer with Kirk Ferentz? Mark Dantonio has to be up there. September 27, 2017
Which B1G coach would top the list of least likely to drink a beer with Kirk Ferentz? Mark Dantonio has to be up there. #MusterOneUp
— Irrational Hawkeye (@IrrationalHawk)
At first I read this as a question to me. Which Big Ten coach would I like to drink a beer with? I immediately thought Bret Bielema and then had to recalibrate.
For Ferentz? Maybe Dantonio, if there's not too much scar tissue over recruiting throughout the years. I'd also nominate Paul Chryst. I could see Ferentz and Chryst telling Barry Alvarez stories and drinking St. Pauli's Girl.
#MusterOneUp do you blame Fredo for going behind Michael's back and working with Hymen Roth?
— Pumpkin Spice Bennie (@BenMcC1908)
No, I don't.
That's the sad beauty of Fredo. He was a dolt with just enough of a glint of ambition to be dangerous to himself. He knew doing the Roth deal was wrong. He didn't know it'd get him a short ride in a boat on Lake Tahoe.
John Cazale was so, so good. He passed way too early (1978). He made five movies and they're among the greatest of all time (you know, Bennie, GOATS) — The Godfather, The Godfather: Part II, Dog Day Afternoon, The Conversation and The Deer Hunter.
I'm going to leave you with this question: Which football program is Big Ten Fredo?
l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com
Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Nathan Stanley (4) passes against North Texas at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City on Saturday, Sept. 16, 2017. (Rebecca F. Miller/The Gazette)