Hoops breakdown: UNI vs Drake

No. 14/15 Northern Iowa returns home Saturday for the first game back at McLeod Center since the Panthers (21-2, 10-1 Missouri Valley Conference) beat then-No. 12 Wichita State, 70-54, in front of 7,050 fans.

UNI has won 10 straight games, and seem to be running as smoothly as they have all season. The Panthers dominated the Bulldogs (7-16, 4-7) via a 64-40 win in which UNI went on a 32-2 run over the course of both halves and held Drake to just 11 second half points.

But since that game, Drake has rebounded just a bit, winning four of its last six and three straight, including wins against Indiana State and Evansville.

Here's a breakdown of the matchup between the two teams:

Player to watch

Northern Iowa: Jeremy Morgan – Morgan is the defensive motor for a team that hangs its head on the defensive end of the floor. It's a bit cliché to keep repeating he does all the things that don't end up in a box score, but it's true. He's on the floor diving for loose balls and is consistently active in guarding the opposition's best player.

He had a career-high in rebounds against Indiana State on Tuesday with nine to go with his 12 points. His role defensively has also led to a more vocal sophomore guard who's getting comfortable moving into a leadership role. He'll likely be guarding either Gary Ricks Jr. or Reed Timmer on Saturday.

Drake: Gary Ricks Jr. – In a frustrating season for the Bulldogs, Ricks has been the closest thing to a consistent performer on either end of the floor for Drake. He's shooting 42.5 percent from the field so far this season, with an effective field goal percentage of 53.3 percent and leads the Bulldogs at 11.2 points per game.

Drake is shooting 38.9 percent from 3-point range, and Ricks is the guy who shoots the most from there. He's 40.9 percent from deep while taking 30 more shots from there than the next highest teammate and nearly twice as many as his teammates. If the Bulldogs have a chance, he'll give it to them.

Strengths

Northern Iowa: Post defense and offensive efficiency – Pick pretty much any defensive specialty and the Panthers are good at it. But they showed against Indiana State they're able to adjust to different opponents' strengths in the post, which is going to be important with a 7-foot Jacob Enevold waiting for them. Seth Tuttle struggled – if only slightly – in dealing with his size, but the team defense will be able to adjust.

And offensively, they still don't play at an even remotely quick pace, but when they get in system can find at least a look at a good shot most of the time. They rank second in the MVC in offensive efficiency at 1.075 points per possession.

Drake: Outside shooting and free throw shooting – There's not a ton to write home about for the Bulldogs this season, landing at or near the bottom of the conference in most statistical categories.

But where they've done their best is from behind the 3-point line, as mentioned above, and sit fourth the MVC in that category. They also are shooting 74 percent from the free throw line as a team, putting them fifth in conference. It may not seem like much, but in close games it'll help – as evidenced in their last two wins, which were by five and two points.

Weaknesses

Northern Iowa: Press break and offensive rebounding – The biggest struggle the Panthers have faced in the last few weeks is dealing with a full court press in the moments right after it's implemented by the opposition. Against Wichita State, Coach Ben Jacobson called a timeout right away to put something in, but they've shown shakiness in those spots before. Teams catching them off guard could use that to their advantage in the right situation.

Drake: Defensive efficiency and ball control – Teams are scoring 1.115 points per possession against the Bulldogs' defense overall this season, and 1.14 ppp just in conference play, which is last in the MVC. Even with Enevold inside and athletic guards in Ricks and Timmer on the perimeter, Drake is last or next to last in conference in defensive efficiency, opponents' effective field goal percentage, forced turnover percentage and opponent shooting percentage. Translated, that means the Bulldogs aren't forcing opponents into bad shots or bad situations with any regularity.

Northern Iowa wins if…

they stick to what's worked and don't look past their opponent. Drake has a few talented players, and has played hard in the last few weeks. Nonetheless, UNI is definitely the better team both on paper and in practice, so if they stick to what's worked, the Panthers should get their 11th win in a row.

Drake wins if…

Ricks and Timmer have a big day from long range and the Bulldogs' interior defense has an effective game plan. Drake has to stop Seth Tuttle on defense and be able to shot over the pack line defense UNI trots out each night. If the Bulldogs are hitting shots from outside and forcing the Panthers into tough shots offensively, they'll have a chance.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com