Turkey prices are down this year

Here's another excuse to pig out this Thanksgiving - turkey prices are down.

After suffering from an outbreak of bird flu in 2015, American turkey producers have come back in a big way. Low feed costs are helping U.S. output to climb 7 percent this year to a record 6.02 billion pounds, government data show.

Rising supplies mean that wholesale frozen birds are fetching about 11 percent less than this time last year.

The production boom is good news for Thanksgiving dinners, as recent history suggests Americans will eat about 46 million of the birds when they celebrate the holiday on Nov. 24, according to the National Turkey Federation. With poultry prices falling, the average bill to feed 10 people for Thanksgiving is set to drop about 0.5 percent from 2015, when the expense reached a record high.

Declines also are being driven by falling costs for pumpkin-pie mix and milk, according to an annual survey from American Farm Bureau Federation. Prices for peas, fresh cranberries and sweet potatoes rose.

Prices for wholesale frozen birds weighing eight pounds to 16 pounds averaged $1.1541 a pound in the week ended Nov. 18, down from $1.2922 a year earlier, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The declines were similar for larger birds, and fresh turkey prices also fell from 2015.

'Producers are trying to capitalize on really strong margins,” Knox Jones, an analyst at Advanced Economic Solutions in Omaha, Neb., said in a telephone interview. 'Both weights and increased slaughter are adding to production.”

Gains for turkey output are adding to this year's domestic glut of meat. Pork and chicken production also are forecast at all-time highs, and beef output is growing. Ballooning supplies are helping to keep a lid on food inflation as farmers are also in the midst of harvesting bumper grain crops.

Still, even though a turkey will cost less this year, prices are still at historical highs. The expense for that 10-person Thanksgiving meal is the second-highest ever.