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Hawkeyes' season by the numbers -- Part 1
Marc Morehouse
Jan. 15, 2014 5:10 pm
Let's run some numbers. See if there are any worthwhile conclusions to be made in a game that is, basically, 11 guys on one side playing offense and trying to get something over on the other 11 guys on the other side playing defense.
The chaos bleeds numbers. Let's see what we see.
(This got to be too far flung, and so I've chopped it into two or maybe three. We'll see what I come up with.)
GIVE AND RECEIVE
The Hawkeyes finished the season ranked No. 69 in the nation in turnover margin at minus-1 (seventh in the Big Ten). This was the first time Iowa finished with a negative number since an astounding minus-11 in 2006. Oddly, Iowa was plus-12 during the 4-8 2012 season. The minus-11 is the low of the Ferentz era. Iowa's best was plus-16 in 2002.
Iowa's 21 takeaways put it 60th in the nation (fifth in Big Ten). That number was the fewest takeaways since Iowa had just 19 in 2011. The high mark in Kirk Ferentz's 15 seasons is 32 in 2008. The fewest was 13 in 1999.
Iowa's 22 giveaways tied for 68th and tied for ninth in the Big Ten. That also was Iowa's most giveaways since 28 in the 2009 season. The 2006 team had the most turnovers with 31. The 2002 Hawkeyes had the fewest with nine (!!!).
In 187 games as Iowa's coach, Ferentz's teams are plus-54 in turnover margin (333 takeaways, 279 giveaways).
Middle linebacker James Morris led the Hawkeyes with seven turnover-producing plays (interceptions, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries). Last season, he had three. Cornerback B.J. Lowery was next with six (three INTs, three forced fumbles) followed by linebacker Christian Kirksey with five and free safety Tanner Miller with four.
DT Carl Davis and DEs Mike Hardy and Dominic Alvis were the only regular defensive starters without a takeaway.
The Hawkeyes fumbled 13 times and lost seven. QB Jake Rudock and RBs LeShun Daniels and Jordan Canzeri fumbled twice and each lost one. Iowa lost 10 fumbles in 2011 and 13 in '08. WR Kevonte Martin-Manley lost a fumble and had a muffed punt.
RB Mark Weisman fumbled once in 226 carries. He's lost two fumbles in his 385 career carries.
Special teams fumbled twice and lost both.
Interceptions spiked this season. Rudock threw 13 of Iowa's 15 interceptions, which ties for third most for a QB in the Ferentz era. Ricky Stanzi threw 15 picks in the 2009 season. Drew Tate threw 14 in '04 and 13 in 2006. The 15 INTs were third highest since 1999, with 2009 (20) and '06 (19) being the only years with more.
Since topping out in '09, Iowa QBs threw just six, eight and eight picks before this season.
Conclusion: Too many interceptions. Rudock didn't duck that fact after the Outback. That's No. 1 on his offseason checklist. The stat I wish I would've kept and will from here on out: turnovers into TDs.
CAPPING BIG PLAYS
In 2012, Iowa finished a respectable 23rd in the nation with just 155 plays of 10-plus yards allowed. In 2011, that number was 40th (165). In 2010, with a defense that pretty much entirely ended up in the NFL or with a shot at making it in the league, Iowa was 22nd (154).
Iowa beat all of those numbers in 2013.
The Hawkeyes allowed just 132 plays of 10-plus yards. That ranked No. 6 in the country. In 20-plus plays, Iowa allowed 35, which was No. 2 in the nation behind the 34 allowed by Notre Dame.
Iowa allowed 46 rush plays of 10-plus yards, No. 12 in the nation. (In the three seasons before 2013, Iowa went No. 18, 52 and 3 in 10-plus rush plays allowed.)
Opponents clipped Iowa for 86 pass plays of 10-plus yards, which was No. 6 in the nation. This was a tremendous uptick. The three previous years, Iowa was No. 47, 51 and 82 (82 in 2010? That seems wrong).
Iowa tied for No. 2 in the county with 8 rush TDs allowed (Florida State led with 7). The 20 TD passes Iowa allowed was 64th in the country and sixth in the Big Ten.
Conclusion: Big pass plays were problematic early, but you would take this every year.
DISRUPTION
The how of "QB hurries" stat continues to be elusive.
This is a stat that Iowa didn't keep in 1999, Ferentz's first season. Since then, Iowa has had years where it's tracked 78 QBHs (2002) and then years where it's bottomed out at six (2012). Is it consistent? What constitutes a QBH? The bottom line is that it's pressure on the quarterback and Iowa was much better in that regard in 2013.
Through a lot of creative blitzing (especially over the second half of the season), Iowa finished with 24 sacks and 27 QBHs. Since QBH is loosely defined, let's make up a number of our own. Let's add sacks and QBH and divide them by total number of defensive plays and let's call it the "mayhem number."
By "mayhem" count, Iowa had its second best year in the last five. The 2009 defense rolled up 31 sacks, 20 QBH and held offenses to 844 snaps. That comes out to .060. The 2013 defense went 24 sacks, 27 QBH and 861 snaps for .059. The 2011 defense bottomed out (21 sacks, nine hurries and 962 snaps) at .0010. Quarterbacks had all day against Iowa's 2011 defense.
Iowa's 24 sacks last season was tied for seventh best in the Ferentz era (40 in 2002). The 27 QBH were fourth (78 in 2002, when DE Howard Hodges racked up a Ferentz-high 17).
Linebacker Christian Kirksey led Iowa in mayhem numbers, 2.5 sacks and 7 QBH. The high number in the last five years is Adrian Clayborn with 20.5 in 2009 (11.5 sacks, nine QBH). FWIW, Hodges checks in with the KF-era high at 26 (nine sacks, 17 QBH) in 2002. DE Aaron Kampman had 24 in 2001 (nine sacks, 15 QBH). (Aside, if Aaron Kampman would've redshirted in '98 and played on the 2002 defense . . .)
The air "mayhem" this season was OK. Cornerback B.J. Lowery had a KF-era high 16 pass breakups (topping corner D.J. Johnson's 15 from 2002). The defense broke up/picked up a pass every .060 snaps. The high the last five years was 2009, which affected a pass every .101 snaps (65 PBUs, 21 INTs, the D-line broke up 16 passes that season).
The high for pass breakups in the KF era is the 2001 defense with 68 (Benny Sapp and Matt Stockdale tied for team high with 12). The 2008 Hawkeyes had the KF high with 23 interceptions (safety Tyler Sash led with six).
Conclusion: Steps in the right direction. Disruption was a huge factor in victories over Michigan and Nebraska. Now, keeping that up in 2014?
Iowa Hawkeyes players crowd around the Heroes Game trophy as they celebrate their Big Ten Conference NCAA football win over Nebraska at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 29, 2013, in Lincoln, Neb. (Jim Slosiarek/The Gazette-KCRG)