UNI football opponent breakdown: South Dakota

There was not an objective party who expected what happened in Fargo, N.D., two weeks ago. South Dakota went into the FargoDome and did what 26 straight teams hadn't been able to do — beat North Dakota State at home.

The Coyotes rolled in and took care of business — not only winning, but doing so after going behind, 14-0. Not many teams can beat the Bison after trailing 14-0 on their own home field, let alone on the road.

USD did not get off to a great start in Missouri Valley Football Conference play, dropping games at home to Youngstown State and at home to Western Illinois (UNI fans know that pain), but after the win at NDSU and a home win against MVFC bottom-dweller Missouri State, the Coyotes are back in business. As much as everyone loves to talk about UNI having a lot to play for in terms of a playoff berth, USD has just as much to play for. 

They enter the UNI-Dome as confident as any team in the conference.

Each week we'll have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. This week it's Mick Garry, who covers South Dakota for the Argus-Leader in Sioux Falls.

SOUTH DAKOTA SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Sept. 5 at Kansas State, L, 34-0

Sept. 12 at UC Davis, W, 27-17

Sept. 19 vs Drake, W, 52-0

Oct. 3 vs No. 10 Youngstown State, L, 31-3

Oct. 10 at Western Illinois, L, 40-21

Oct. 17 at No. 2 North Dakota State, W, 24-21

Oct. 24 vs Missouri State, W, 40-10

Oct. 31 at No. 18/21 UNI

Nov. 7 vs Southern Illinois

Nov. 14 vs No. 13/14 South Dakota State

Nov. 21 at No. 3 Illinois State

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

South Dakota offers a trio of primary offensive looks for opponents. Like most, roughly half of their offensive sets come in the spread, which features quarterback Ryan Saeger and leading rusher Trevor Bouma. But they've transitioned from a mainly run-and-gun spread of the last several years under head coach Joe Glenn to some power offense sets that look an awful lot like what NDSU trots out. UNI Coach Mark Farley said USD runs two tight ends and a fullback in roughly 25 percent of their offensive plays, then one tight end and two running backs in 25 percent. That allows them to be versatile in their play-calling, and has allowed the Coyotes to beat teams at their own game.

USD averages 379 yards per game so far this season (188.6 per game passing, 190.4 per game rushing), which is up from last season. The most notable increase is on the ground, where the Coyotes are 30 yards better per game this season than last. That owes to the power packages, and shows USD has succeeded in making it a point of focus.

The biggest struggle this offense has had is how they've gotten started. In first quarters this season, USD has been outscored 54-33. They more than make up for it in the second and fourth quarters, outscoring opponents 96-61 collectively. But against a team like UNI, which plays stout defense, playing from behind can spell trouble.

From Garry on South Dakota's offensive outlook:

"The Coyotes lost their top running back, former LeMars Gehlen starter Trevor Bouma, to a broken arm in the upset over North Dakota State and the next week played Missouri State, a fairly weak defensive team. They got through fine against the Bears but true freshman Michael Fredrick, quick but small at 175 pounds, will be dealing with a whole different level this week. Quarterback Ryan Saeger has been steadily improving for the Coyotes, but USD gave up seven sacks last year to UNI, so he's another one who will be seeing a different level this week."

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

USD lines up in a traditional 4-3 defensive scheme, and has focused much of its coverage schemes around a talented group of defensive backs. The Coyotes not only run a lot of man coverage, but they apply press coverage, putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the cornerbacks to be disciplined and crisp in coverage. Being able to rely on talented corners allows the defense to get aggressive with blitzes and disguised rushes from the front seven. The have allowed some big plays this season in the passing game, but not a ton compared to how often they put their corners on an island. The Coyotes have nine sacks as a team and 35 tackles for loss.

In talking about taking a leap from last year to this year on offense, but in terms of improvement, the defense has a much bigger feather in its cap. Last season the Coyotes gave up 466.7 yards per game — 232.2 per game passing and 234.5 per game rushing. Those numbers are down drastically this season, to 314.6 total yards per game, with 175.6 per game passing and just 139 per game rushing.

The combination of scheme, focus and getting players on the field who now have experience has made this defense formidable, to be sure. UNI's identity offensively has been the read-option, so it'll be strength versus strength on Saturday.

From Garry on South Dakota's defensive outlook:

"The Coyotes did a great job of avoiding giving up any big plays after the first quarter against NDSU two weeks ago and followed that up with another strong effort against Missouri State last Saturday. Again, it's an apples-to-bowling-balls comparison from last week to this week but it's a more mature defense than last year when the unit was 10

^th

in the league in just about everything."

KEY PLAYERS

Andrew Van Ginkel, DL — This northwest Iowa native is just a red-shirt freshman, but he's made his presence known in a big way this season. He's only fourth on the team in tackles with 40 (tied for the team lead in solo tackles with 26), but he's constantly disrupting opponents in the backfield and has owned the line of scrimmage. He's by far the team leader in sacks (six) and tackles for loss (12), has four more quarterback hits, has batted two passes down at the line, forced and recovered a fumble and even has a blocked kick. This kid has future MVFC Defensive Player of the Year written all over him.

Jacob Warner, DB — The 6-foot junior has been one of the Coyotes' two shutdown cornerbacks this season, lining up on the opposite side of Tyson Graham all season long. He's tied with Graham for third on the team with 41 tackles, and each have three interceptions this season. Warner gets the nod here because he's been more active in pass coverage overall. He's got four pass breakups and seven passes defensed. Those are plays that literally take away yards from opposing offenses. This defense doesn't work without that performance.

Garry on South Dakota's key players:

"On offense, you'd have to start with Ryan Saeger, who has improved quite a bit over his time on the field from a year ago. Fredrick at running back has the capacity to break loose for a long gain, but he's a youngster and not very big. The top receiver is Eric Shufford, a senior who will occasionally run a deep route but does most of his work within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. There are no real stars on defense, though the team has veterans up the middle with defensive tackles Nick Jacobs and Drew Iddings both seniors. The entire linebacking crew, led by senior Keyen Lage, has also spent a lot of time on the field over the last three years."

PREDICTION

USD presents a very similar challenge that UNI has faced in the last several weeks. In fact, they're a team succeeding in ways that closely resemble the Panthers themselves. The Coyotes play tough, consistent defense with an offense that does just enough to get the job done. UNI hasn't had a good season through the air, and that's not likely to change course on Saturday. Ultimately this game comes down to which defense cracks first, and which running game gets rolling. USD playing on the road can't totally be a credit to UNI, either, because of what they did at the FargoDome. Still, a Panther team playing with, essentially, their season on the line is dangerous. A win last week also has the home team snapped back into focus. Expect a similar game to what UNI played at South Dakota State on Saturday. Northern Iowa 17, South Dakota 14.

From Garry: "I have not picked the Coyotes to win a conference road game since the 2013 season but I'll try it one time: USD 27, UNI 24. Not a homer – I had NDSU winning by 40 two weeks ago."

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