Linder: Return to NCAA for Hawkeyes

IOWA CITY — The Iowa Hawkeyes were on the wrong side of the bubble last season, and an eight-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances came to an end.

With four non-conference losses, the margin for error is thin as the Big Ten season approaches. But the forecast here is for Iowa to be north of the line that will ultimately decide their postseason fate.

Starting with Wednesday's opener at Illinois, the Hawkeyes' schedule sets up nicely for a quick start.

After traveling to Champaign, Iowa's next three games are against Nebraska (home) and Penn State (away) before another meeting with Illinois, at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. No reason the Hawkeyes can't reach the quarter pole in the Big Ten race at 3-1, if not 4-0.

It gets drastically more challenging after that, with two meetings against Maryland in a 16-day span. Difficult trips to Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue and Indiana await in February.

The Big Ten appears to be a three-tier structure. Nothing has changed since the preseason — Maryland and Ohio State are the class of the league again. Illinois and Wisconsin figure to make up the bottom, along with a Rutgers outfit that staggered to a 3-10 pre-conference mark.

Picking 3 through 11 is difficult. Indiana was the surprise of the league last year, and its lineup is pretty much intact since then. Michigan State will edge the Hoosiers for the third-place spot.

I'm going to go with a 9-7 mark for the Hawkeyes, which will be good enough for a fifth-place tie with Michigan and Penn State. The pick here is that Iowa will go 7-1 at Carver (losing just to Maryland) and 2-6 on the road (with wins over Illinois and Rutgers).

That would put Iowa at 18-11 heading into the Big Ten tournament. Win one and lose one there, and that's 19-12, and that will be good enough to put the Hawkeyes in the Big Dance for the ninth time in 10 seasons.

My complete picks for the Big Ten race:

1. MARYLAND

Projected overall: 30-2. Big Ten: 15-1. Big Ten tournament: Champion. Postseason: NCAA, No. 1 seed.

2. OHIO STATE

Projected overall: 26-7. Big Ten: 14-2. Big Ten tournament: Runner-up. Postseason: NCAA, No. 3 seed.

3. MICHIGAN STATE

Projected overall: 22-9. Big Ten: 11-5. Big Ten tournament: Semifinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 5 seed.

4. INDIANA

Projected overall: 21-10. Big Ten: 10-6. Big Ten tournament: Semifinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 6 seed.

5. MICHIGAN

Projected overall: 21-11. Big Ten: 9-7. Big Ten tournament: Quarterfinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 8 seed.

5. PENN STATE

Projected overall: 20-10. Big Ten: 9-7. Big Ten tournament Quarterfinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 8 seed.

5. IOWA

Projected overall: 19-12. Big Ten: 9-7. Big Ten tournament: Quarterfinalist. Postseason: NCAA, No. 9 seed.

8. PURDUE

Projected overall: 18-14. Big Ten: 8-8. Big Ten tournament: Quarterfinalist. Postseason: WNIT.

9. NORTHWESTERN

Projected overall: 18-12. Big Ten: 7-9. Big Ten tournament: Second round. Postseason: WNIT.

9. NEBRASKA

Projected overall: 11-18. Big Ten: 7-9. Big Ten tournament: Second round. Postseason: None.

11. MINNESOTA

Projected overall: 16-15. Big Ten: 6-10. Big Ten tournament: Second round. Postseason: WNIT.

12. WISCONSIN

Projected overall: 8-22. Big Ten: 3-13. Big Ten tournament: First round. Postseason: None.

13. ILLINOIS

Projected overall: 7-23. Big Ten: 2-14. Big Ten tournament: First round. Postseason: None.

13. RUTGERS

Projected overall: 6-25. Big Ten: 2-14. Big Ten tournament: Second round. Postseason: None.

l Comments: (319) 368-8857; jeff.linder@thegazette.com