From 5 to 4: Another Drop in House Seats

While Iowa did not lose population in the 2010 census, other states gained a larger percentage.

The gains of Texas (4 seats), Florida (2 seats) and six other states will lead to Iowa's loss.

Once again.

There was once a time when Iowa was a major player in the U.S. House, at least by the number of representatives.  From the 1880s to the late 1920s, Iowa had 13 electoral votes, meaning 11 seats in the House during that stretch.

Yet as America's population moved west and south in the decades to follow, the members of Congress who represented Iowa also dropped.

For the Elections of 1932-1940: 9 Reps

1944, 1948: 8 Reps

1956-1968: 7 Reps

1972-1988: 6 Reps

1992-present: 5 Reps.  (Fred Grandy was the final representative of the 6th District, in northwest Iowa)

“Iowa has to reverse its trends or it could be down to two or three seats in 30 or 40 years,” said Cary Covington, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa.

Now as Iowa moves from five seats in the U.S. House to four, the non-partisan Legislative Service Bureau will look at the maps.

Covington stressed the bureau must draw districts that are “compact, contiguous and of equal population” and the lines cannot be drawn with any discrimination in mind, racial or otherwise.

“They have to draw the lines on population, with existing natural boundaries so we don't divide counties.”

Here is where the 2012 Congressional Elections could get a bit tense for the five incumbents.  None of the five are seen as moving on, whether through retirement or higher political office.  Iowa will not have a governor's race nor an open seat in the U.S. Senate until 2014.  Even Leonard Boswell, (D-3rd District), who turned 78 this week, told the political website Rollcall that he plans to run for another term in 2012.

So which district will get dissolved into the others?  Here is a look at the major cities in each:

1st- Bruce Braley (Democrat): Waterloo, Dubuque, Davenport

2nd- Dave Loebsack (Democrat): Cedar Rapids, Iowa City,

3rd- Leonard Boswell (Democrat): Des Moines and east to Benton County

4th- Tom Latham (Republican): South/West of Des Moines, Ames, Mason City and east to Allamakee County

5th- Steve King (Republican): Council Bluffs, Sioux City.

“It does appear to me that Latham's district is the most susceptible to being carved up as he doesn't have a major metropolitian area,” said Covington.

If the 4th District is blended into the others, here is what Covington sees playing out:

1st: Will move to the north and west, toward the Minnesota border.

2nd: Will move east and west, possibly to the Quad Cities.

3rd: May become more compact around Des Moines.

5th: Will move east, one or two counties along the state, close to I-35.

Covington said the Legislative Service Bureau will come up with a plan and present it to the legislature for a vote.  If rejected, the bureau will return with a second plan.  If the second plan is not agreed upon, the legislature then takes a more active role in drawing up the maps.

“It is kind of ironic that a state that just elected a Republican governor might end up losing a Republican seat.”

Statement from Rep. Bruce Braley (1st District - Third Term) into SourceMedia Group for this story:

“I'm honored to have the chance to serve the people of the first congressional district for another two years. And I'm very proud to be from a state that has one of the most non-partisan redistricting processes in the whole country. While we don't yet know what the new districts will look like, I will continue to fight for hard-working Iowans in the House of Representatives.”

Statement from Rep. Dave Loebsack (3rd District - Third Term) into SourceMedia Group for this story:

“I am deeply disappointed that our state will be losing one of our seats in Congress, but I know that the entire Delegation will continue to work together to ensure that the priorities of Iowans are being met.

“We are fortunate in Iowa to have a nonpartisan redistricting process that does not favor any political party or individual Member of Congress. I'm honored to represent each one of the Iowans in the current Second Congressional District and would be honored to represent new counties as well. I travel home to Iowa each weekend and am dedicated to providing the best constituent services and to being as accessible to my constituents as possible.  I will continue that commitment regardless of the size of my District.

”We have to keep in mind that Iowa is losing a congressional seat because the Census showed that our population is not growing as fast as the rest of the nation.  We must work to reverse this trend. That is why I have strongly supported our state's cutting-edge renewable energy industry, have worked to reinvigorate our manufacturing base so that we start to build things in America again, and have worked tirelessly to support small businesses, which are the drivers of our economy.  I will continue to work to support and promote good-paying jobs for Iowans and will continue to work to make sure that our state not only competes in, but leads, the 21

^st

century economy.”