Too soon to say how redistricting will pan out

DES MOINES - Until they see a map, Iowa legislative leaders say, they really can't tell what redistricting will mean for future control of the Legislature.

And they probably won't see a map until the end of March, according to attorney Ed Cook. He's the senior legal counsel for the Legislative Services Agency, which is responsible for carrying out Iowa's non-partisan redistricting process.

“It all starts with the congressional districts,” he said. Although Iowa will go from five congressional districts to four, that may be the easy part of the process.

“Well, there just aren't as many moving parts,” Cook said about drawing a map to create four districts with populations as close to 761,589 people as possible.

When it comes to drawing the boundaries of 100 Iowa House districts - two for each of 50 Iowa Senate districts - Cook and company can slice and dice counties and cities to get to the ideal Senate district population of 60,927.

"So it's all about how you draw the map,” said Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs.

Related information

• Iowa redistricting: 3 million people, 99 counties, four U.S. House districts
• With new census results in, clock starts ticking on Iowa redistricting

Census data released this month shows that western Iowa, in general, and many rural areas of the state lost population. Urban and suburban areas saw gains.

“So globally,” said House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, D-Des Moines, “western Iowa districts are likely to get bigger.” That may cut into Republican numbers.

The largest district is Senate 48, which includes seven counties in southern Iowa. It lost 2,033 residents, and lawmakers speculate it could grow to 10 counties after redistricting.

McCarthy's more bullish on Democratic opportunities when he looks at Eastern Iowa, where Democrats tend to do better. Most of those Senate districts have gained population.

“Globally, it's a wash,” McCarthy said. “Who the heck knows what will happen? That's the good thing about this system.”

Senate Majority Leader Paul McKinley thinks he knows: Republicans will regain control of the Iowa Senate in 2012.

“Not just because of these numbers, but the momentum we gained in 2010,” he said.

But the numbers are encouraging, he says. The growth in Ankeny and Dallas County - areas already represented by Republicans - bode well for GOP gains, McKinley says. He expects the party may lose members as rural districts get larger.

“It gets down to individual districts,” he said, noting that some rural districts now represented by moderate to conservative Democrats are not likely to get more favorable to Democratic candidates.

House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha, also subscribes to the “wait until we see a map” philosophy, but said “with 60 members in my caucus, it all looks good.”

House Republicans flipped the chamber from 56-44 last year to 60-40 this year, and Paulsen expects to maintain strong numbers under a new configuration.

“We picked up some growing areas in the last election,” Paulsen said.

Although House Republicans may lose some rural Iowa seats, “those people have moved to the cities and suburbs and are likely to continue voting Republican,” he predicted.

While lawmakers wait for Cook to produce a map, “we're not losing any sleep over it,” Gronstal said.

When he gets the map, “I won't deny there will be some political calculations in deciding whether to approve it,” Gronstal said. “If it looks good for us ...”