The Big Analysis -- Michigan

When Iowa has the ball

Michigan runs a 3-3-5, an unconventional alignment in the nation and the only such front in the Big Ten.

It seems to be coach Rich Rodriguez's preferred defense. In 2008, the Wolverines started in a base 4-3 under coordinator Scott Shafer, but then ended in the 3-3-5. Shafer was then shown the door after the D allowed 35 or more points in six of nine losses. In 2009, Rodriguez's offense made gains under Tate Forcier and, sort of, Denard Robinson. Former NFL coordinator and Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson was brought in to run defense. In Big Ten games, the Wolverines allowed more points on more yards than any other team in the conference and nose dived into the conference cellar.

The 3-3-5 is the base, but Greg Robinson has installed quick tweaks that allows Michigan to switch to 3-4 or 4-3. (Linebacker Craig Roh, a 6-5, 251-pounder, is sort of at the epicenter of that.) The numbers haven't been glorious. The Wolverines are 112th in total defense (450.67 yards a game), 119th in pass defense (304.33 yards a game, second to last in FBS) and 75th in scoring defense 26.83.

As far as personnel goes, the Wolverines defensive line is underrated.  Junior nosetackle Mike Martin (6-2, 299) is having a standout season (5.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks) and often draws double-and-even-triple teams. Junior defensive end Ryan Van Bergen (6-6, 283) is a good player next to him. The Wolverines D-linemen, along with senior DT Greg Banks (6-5, 284), have held up their end of the deal.

Michigan's secondary is the worst in the Big Ten. It's extremely young – only one full-time starter returned from last year – and it shows. Cornerback James Roger missed some snaps agianst Michigan State. His backup, true freshman Cullen Christian, was subsequently burned. It's all freshmen behind Rogers and J.T. Floyd.

Michigan State's long TD runs last week (61 and 41) were on inside zone rushes. Massachusetts used the inside zone to hit Michigan with 217 rush yards. With three down linemen and three linebackers, the defense calls for a lot of movement at the snap and, thus, leaves a defense more vulnerable for a faulty gap.

So, the game here is Iowa's O-linemen getting their hands on Michigan front seven players and making the Hawkeyes' version of the zone stretch click.

One of the key matchups here is Martin and Iowa center James Ferentz. Ferentz needs to work with either guard Nolan MacMillan or Julian Vandervelde on the double-team on Martin and then get to the second level and disrupt linebacker flow, either Obi Ezeh or Jonas Mouton. It doesn't take a pancake block to make this happen, but keeping Martin from penetrating and filling a gap is the hard part.

A lot of attention has gone toward Iowa running back Adam Robinson this week. He was battered after a career-high 28 carries against Penn State. He pronounced himself ready to roll this week.

Iowa's most important offensive player today is senior quarterback Ricky Stanzi.

The fifth-year senior is at the height of his powers. He is No. 3 in the nation in pass efficiency (176.85), an immensely important stat for quarterbacks under Iowa offensive coordinator Ken O'Keefe. Remember 2004? Iowa's offense was QB Drew Tate and a good group of receivers, no running game. Tate's efficiency was 40th in the NCAA at 134.7. Iowa offenses live off this stat and, so far, Stanzi's numbers have been a feast.

Another matchup here that should favor the Hawkeyes is a veteran group of receivers against a young secondary. Senor WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos needs 10 receptions and 67 yards to become Iowa's career leader in receptions and receiving yards. Junior WR Marvin McNutt might even be a bigger headache matchup-wise, with a 6-4, 215-pound body, a 30-something vertical and catcher's mitt hands. Senior TE Allen Reisner is already in career-season range with 17 receptions.

Iowa's passing game might be its best foot forward, kind of like 2004.

Advantage: Iowa

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan's offense relies tremendously on quarterback Denard Robinson. He is the most consistent player on either side of the ball for Michigan and covers up a lot of questions with the rest of the offense – specifically the running backs.

Michigan doesn't have that classic Michigan bruiser at running back. Vincent Smith, Michael Shaw and Michael Cox are the guys. Smith (5-6, 180) is Michigan's No. 2 rusher with 286 yards. He's only 705 yards behind Robinson, who's No. 2 in the nation at 991 yards. Shaw (6-1, 187) isn't far behind Smith with 74 yards. The two have combined for nine TDs, the same amount as Robinson.

If you've seen the movie "Bad News Bears" -- it's old, Tatum O'Neal and Walter Matthau -- then you know the reference that's coming. Denard Robinson is Michigan's Kelly Leak, the best player on the Bad News Bears who nearly, nearly, lifted the rag tag group to the big trophy at the end.

It all flows through Robinson.

He carries the ball at every meaningful moment. He throws the ball when he can. He's been clutch, lifting the Wolverines over Indiana at the last season. He's been not-so-clutch, throwing three INTs (two in Michigan State's end zone) in last week's loss.

Rodriguez wants it this way. It's sort of Pat White at West Virginia all over again. That was where Rodriguez was before Michigan and it's where Rodriguez solidified his reputation. Early questions about using the quarterback as a runner in the burly Big Ten have dissipated with Robinson's ascent. He's No. 2 in the nation in rushing (165.2). He's No. 2 in total offense (369.0).

Robinson's superior speed (not to mention vision) combined with upper-tier Big Ten receiving corps and O-line have made it work so far.

The Michigan offensive line is good. Very good. Good enough to stop talented Iowa's front four? That's the BCS spotlight question. Right guard Stephen Schilling and center David Molk, who Iowa recruited tooth and nail, have put together good seasons on the interior of the line. Left tackle Taylor Lewan won the job three weeks ago and has become consistent on Robinson's blind side, if such a thing exists.

This might sound silly, but is Michigan's offense too good for Michigan's defense?

Michigan gives up a ton of yards (112th nationally at 450.67) and gains a bunch (3rd at 533.67). Less than 40 teams since 1999 have come close to that sort of disparity, according to AnnArbor.com.

Plus, Michigan scores fast. The Wolverines have 16 TD drives of two minutes or less. Even though it's in a good way, that does add pressure to a beleaguered defensive squad.

Don't look for any magic from Iowa's defense, even coming off an idle week. Iowa's defense is Iowa's defense. If anything expect the "outside in" and "keep it in front of you" principles to be reinforced for this game.

Think of it as a three-hour kick coverage drill. The Hawkeyes need to stay in their lanes (on defense, that's called gap control) and keep from asking the kicker from tackling Denard Robinson.

That said, Iowa's defensive line, the best overall unit on the field today, needs to play like it. One realization Rodriguez had coming out of Michigan State was that he might not be relying on Robinson enough. Specifically, the Wolverines' zone-read rush was pretty much nullified by MSU's weakside defensive end last week. That D-end simply broke down and stayed home, forcing Robinson to hand off. Michigan very much wants Robinson to run the ball as much as he can, even though he's a slight 6-0, 193. He's nuclear with the ball. Michigan's backs aren't working up to explosive.

This is the fun part. Expect Robinson to challenge Iowa's DEs, Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns (or Christian Ballard). That's just going to be football fun times 10.

The big health note here is middle linebacker Jeff Tarpinian. He suffered a neck stinger against Ball State and has been basically sidelined since. He is making the trip to Ann Arbor and could very well play. If he can't, it's senior Troy Johnson or true freshman James Morris.

Advantage: Push

Special teams

The Wolverines' kicking game has been non-existent. They've rarely attempted field goals and haven't been good when they tried. Walk-on Seth Broekhuizen (1 of 3 so far this year) won the job, but if Rodriguez can go for it on a 4th-and-short, he will if the opportunity is right. Michigan is 2 of 7 on field goals this season.

True freshman punter Will Hagerup, another player Iowa recruited tooth and nail, has elevated his game in recent weeks, averaging 42.6 a punt. He has seven 50-plus yard efforts and has dropped six inside the opponent's 20.

Wide receiver Darryl Stonum is eight in the Big Ten with 20.5 yards a kick return.

Iowa's special teams are slowly recovering from the trauma of the Arizona game. There were no major accidents against Ball State or Penn State, so it's two games without a major flaw. That's a start after enduring an awful start (specifically kick coverage) to 2010.

Punter Ryan Donahue hasn't left a giant footprint on a game yet this season. This could be the one. What's particularly impressive is his 11 punts inside the 20. That shows his skill level and the overall health of Iowa's core special teams taking root.

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said during his radio show Wednesday night that kicker Daniel Murray is close to a return, but that true freshman walk-on Mike Meyer (2 of 3 this season) will remain on field goal duty this week.

Advantage: Iowa

The Scoreboard

Stanzi needs a fast start. A 10 of 12 for a TD or two would do it. Iowa can't settle, and probably won't, for field goals. It needs to make sure touchdowns don't wilt into field goals. Adam Robinson needs to find rhythm behind an O-line that is still looking for a signature game. Every minute Denard Robinson is off the field counts.

If Iowa's front four forces Robinson to speed up his clock with an early pressure or two, maybe the Hawkeyes can see the Denard Robinson of last week, an impatient thrower who missed targets and opportunity.

 The Michigan front seven is under the gun here. It has to protect a secondary that has been beaten up and is facing a senior quarterback with two experienced and talented WRs.

Even with Denard Robinson carrying most of the weight, that might be too much to ask.

Iowa 35, Michigan 24