Chetchase 2010 - Manic Monday

Monday should have been a good day for Gov. Chet Culver's campaign. And it was, but yet, it wasn't.

It looked good early in the afternoon, when the Revenue Estimating Conference, a three-member panel of budget experts, put a rosier glow on state tax collection estimates. Thanks to a slowly recovering economy, the state will collect more revenue this budget year and next than forecasters originally expected.

What that means, without getting too deep into the numbers weeds, that the projected shortfall for the next budget year, Fiscal Year 2012, shrank.

So the $1 billion budget "deficit," really a projected shortfall, Culver's rival, Terry Branstad, has been beating the Lug over the head with for months is now likely less than $400 million. And when the same panel meets in December, better economy willing, it might shrink more.

That's still a lot of dough, but far more manageable than it once looked. Actually, as state projected shortfalls go, it's bordering on common. Big, built-in increases always look daunting before lawmakers dig into details. Basically, whoever takes the oath of office and becomes governor in January will have a problem that's a solvable size.

So, Culver's argument that things are not as bad as they seem got a boost. Republicans huddled and decided to run with the biggest, gloomiest economic number they have left in the arsenal.

See if you can guess what it is.

From the Branstad Campaign:

“While Governor Culver celebrates the news that state government may receive more money from Iowa taxpayers than previously anticipated, 114,000 Iowans remain without jobs and find no comfort in a supposed recovery that does not include job growth."

Senate GOP leader Paul McKinley:

“This new revenue estimate is maybe shining a little bit brighter on the great golden dome but there is little of that reflection reaching Main Street, the 114,000 Iowans out of work or the taxpayers saddled with Culver's $526.9 million in property tax increases."

House GOP leader Kraig Paulsen:

“114,000 Iowans are still looking for a job while Gov. Culver and legislative Democrats are celebrating that government has more money. This estimate indicates that there is more money for government and less for taxpayers."

If you guessed 114,000 Iowans out of work, you win. I suspect some message coordination, but I can't be sure.

It's true unemployment remains a serious problem, but rising revenue, which includes income taxes, sales taxes etc.,  is a sign that the economy is improving. Republicans, of course, can't say that. They've got a Chet to catch.

Chet scores points. But even before the Big Lug could finish a hearty round of high-fives, the clouds darkened by late afternoon:

DES MOINES - A special prosecutor Monday filed charges against four people and two gambling entities alleging they made illegal campaign contributions to Gov. Chet Culver's campaign in connection with efforts by Webster County officials to land a state gaming license.Named in charges filed in Polk Count District Court by special prosecutor Lawrence Scalise were Martin Brent Stevens, Jonathan Swain, Steve Daniel, Curtis Beason, along with Peninsula Gaming Partners LLC, and Webster County Entertainment LLC.All those named were charged with violating the state's campaign disclosure law, and Beason was charged with a separate count of obstruction, according to a statement issued by Scalise.

Named in charges filed in Polk Count District Court by special prosecutor Lawrence Scalise were Martin Brent Stevens, Jonathan Swain, Steve Daniel, Curtis Beason, along with Peninsula Gaming Partners LLC, and Webster County Entertainment LLC.

All those named were charged with violating the state's campaign disclosure law, and Beason was charged with a separate count of obstruction, according to a statement issued by Scalise.

Aww dang. The  Fort Dodge gambling shoe dropped.

Everyone is quick to point out that the governor and members of his campaign staff escaped the special prosecutor's dragnet. They did nothing illegal in accepting the contributions, which later went to charity. Culver's camp went with "vindication," as its word of the day.

Still, when you go fishing in the cesspool that is the political money game, and you pull up rotten fish, you're bound to get some slime on your loafers. The governor does not walk away from this as clean as the driven snow.

Branstad calls this a "culture of corruption," but unfortunately, it's politics as usual. And people are sick of it.

Culver sought campaign cash from folks he knew were desperate to do whatever they could to gain any foothold in an uphill fight to win a very valuable gaming license - from a board Culver appoints. He needed the money for a tough re-election slog, and they wanted to make that contribution so much they may have broken the law to get it done.

Soliciting that money was perfectly legal. I know that's how the high-stakes game is played. And lord knows Branstad, the father of legal gambling, pulls in casino-related cash.

But with those license applications pending, it was a bad idea than now looks even worse.

Perhaps it's better this happened sooner than later. But very good budget news got eaten alive by the shady campaign finance story.

In the dead tree world, The Gazette's font page gave the budget news  top billing, but the criminal charges were also on A1. The Register blasted the contributions story on its front page,  and it remains in prominent placement on its website. The budget news made page 5.

If you listened to radio newscasts this morning, as I did, the gambling contributions story was on top. Crime is interesting. Revenue estimates, not so much.

Only three more manic Mondays to go.