Stat Pak: Almost there, but ways to go for Iowa football

Observations from Iowa football's 17-10, overtime loss to Northwestern on Saturday.

On the O-line — Another relatively rough day. This one was against a middle-of-the-road Big Ten front seven (although No. 32 Nate Hall was amazing).

If you're looking for reasons, this just isn't the O-line Iowa thought it would have in July and August. Senior offensive tackles Boone Myers and Ike Boettger are out and freshmen Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs are in. How many teams go through a tradeoff where the three-year senior OTs you thought you were going to have are out and replace by a redshirt and a true freshman? Alabama, Ohio State and maybe three others.

The game is moving very, very fast for Jackson and Wirfs right now.

— Second-and-9 from Northwestern's 17, RB Toren Young wants outside zone. Jackson eats his linebacker. Wirfs gets his feet caught in a cut block and the middle linebacker on the backside.

— Next play, Jackson gave up a sack to DE Joe Gaziano. It was a bull rush. Graziano got Jackson again with the same move later in the game. Gaziano has a year on Jackson in the weight room and it showed. This forced a 37-yard field goal into a strong wind. Twelve-play drive and no points. Advantage Northwestern.

— Northwestern ran the backside defensive end laterally down the line of scrimmage. Iowa OL never accounted for that. At least a half dozen times, the backside DE spilled the play where NU wanted it or made the tackle. RB Akrum Wadley had to stop his feet too many times at the line of scrimmage, because there was no rush lane.

— After Young had a 23-yard gain, NU freshman DE Samdup Miller stopped Wadley on back-to-back carries. Jackson passed him off on the first one. No one picked up Miller. On the second, Jackson missed Miller in space.

— A lot of people thought the Ihmir Smith-Marsette reverse on a third-and-15 in the third quarter would've worked if Jackson got to his block on the corner. That was a tough ask. Jackson had to block down to his right to sell run and then had to pivot out and try to get in front of the play. Yes, the corner ran faster than the 6-7, 320-pounder. Tough ask, IMO.

— QB Nate Stanley's pick was a bad decision. Clearly, Smith-Marsette missed something and was totally covered. Stanley had to throw that one in the stands.

— On the drive where Iowa tied it in the fourth quarter, Wirfs let Gaziano get inside of him on a first-down run. He also had the false start on the fourth-and-inches. I did love how fullback Brady Ross immediately got in the official's space and pleaded for a 'disconcerting signals' penalty. Heady thinking and it at least got a conference.

You're sick of this, I know, but young players making mistakes out of inexperience.

Defense ...

— Two near pick sixes for Josh Jackson.

— I had Iowa in 10 nickel packages (OLB Kevin Ward came off the field and was replaced by CB Michael Ojemudia) and then the quick rushers were inserted (Parker Hesse, AJ Epenesa, Anthony Nelson and, this week, Garret Jansen). Iowa got stops on seven of the 10. The three they missed were a 3rd-4 in the second quarter (Ojemudia stopped the drive with coverage), Thorson's 21-yard scramble that set up NU's first TD (third-and-15 from Iowa's 49) and the 23-yard gain on third-and-9 in OT (pass from Thorson to RB Justin Jackson) that set up NU's game winner.

— On the Thorson scramble, Iowa's DL (excellent game for the nine players rotated in) ran a stunt. DE Anthony Nelson saw a lane to the QB, made a lunge and lost his balance. NU 71 helped in pass pro and got a late shove on Nelson, knocking him to the ground. Parker Hesse, in at DT, held his ground, but Nelson never established himself inside, so Thorson had that opening. (As part of the stunt, Jansen did his job and looped around, taking up two blockers.) Nelson nearly had Thorson, but the QB made the right decision.

— We went over the 23-yarder after the game.

A couple of other Obs:

— That was intentional grounding.

— Linesman out of position on NU's third-quarter TD run. He was on the goal line. A pair of really suspicious-looking potential holding penalties might've happened a few yards in front of the linesman. Would've been tough for him to call from a backside look. Frontside? Maybe or maybe probably one of those gets called.

What a homer, yada, yada, yada. Positioning is actually a huge point of emphasis with officials and they will tell you that. This is purely my observation. Two Iowa defenders had their jerseys stretched and the ref was ahead of the play.

— It was another unclean day for Josh Jackson the punt returner. With the wind, however, what was he told and when? This was an instance where you take the decision out of the first-year punt returner's hands and just say fair catch and then actually catch the ball.

Pre-fair catch everything at this point. You did it with Micah Hyde. Two games where this has been a factor. Northwestern got an 80-yard punt, Iowa couldn't flip the field. NU took over at its 34 and eventually scored.

Three Stars

1. NU linebacker Nate Hall — All over the field for the Wildcats. Nine tackles, tackle for loss and two pass breakups. Felt like he was spying Wadley early. It felt like that because he was all over him. Wadley gets all the attention from opposing defenses.

2. NU running back Justin Jackson — 131 yards from scrimmage for a team that gained 339 total yards. No TDs, but a mile of impact. 23-yard pass in the flat in OT basically won the game.

3. NU special teams — Northwestern punter Hunter Niswander claimed B1G special teamer of the week with the 80-yarder and a 50.8 average on five punts. Kicker Charlie Kuhbander made his one FG attempt (30 yards). The Cats caught three of Iowa's six punts. Iowa caught one of the Cats' five. There's your field-position gap.

DVR Chair

— Went over Iowa's nickel packages. Ten of them with seven stops. CB Manny Rugamba's return moved Ojemudia to the nickel and, IMO, made that package better.

— I had Iowa with five blitzes. None were impactful. If LB running into the RB is the best you have, cover.

— Defensive targets: Jackson 1 of 6 for 18 yards (two pass breakups and drew an offensive PI), Rugamba 5 of 5 for 48 yards), Jake Gervase 2 of 3 for 32, Amani Hooker 1 of 5 for 10, Bo Bower 3 of 3 for 16, Ben Niemann 6 of 8 for 52, Kevin Ward 2 of 2 for 21, Michael Ojemudia 0 of 1 for 0

— Offensive targets: Akrum Wadley 3 of 4 for 5 yards, Toren Young 1 of 2 for 23 yards, Noah Fant 3 of 4 for 31 yards, TJ Hockenson 2 of 4 for 18, Nick Easley 4 of 8 for 45 yards, Matt VandeBerg 3 of 5 for 90 yards, Smith-Marsette 2 of 3 for 6, Brandon Smith 1 of 2 for 5, Brady Ross 0 of 1

— Early in the second quarter, fullback Drake Kulick appeared to hurt his back covering a punt. He played just three snaps at fullback. Ross got 16.

— Junior DT Matt Nelson played 49 snaps and felt like the starter over Cedrick Lattimore (34 snaps).

— Jansen appears to have earned a spot ahead of Brady Reiff in the nickel rush package. Jansen ended up playing 12 snaps.

— You're seeing more Brandon Smith and Max Cooper. Not a lot, but more. Eleven snaps for Smith; five for Cooper.

— You're seeing more snaps for TE Nate Wieting, the blocking TE (who did go out in route maybe three times). Iowa ran three-TE sets at least four times. Wieting played nine snaps; Peter Pekar saw one.

— QB disruption (remember, I'm an easy grader here, but a clear bright spot for Iowa): DE/DT Parker Hesse sack, QB hit (all of his pressures came from DE; he played 10 snaps at DT), DT Nathan Bazata two sacks, hurry, batted pass; DE Anthony Nelson five QB hurries, two QB hits, tackle for loss; DE AJ Epenesa two QB hits, four QB hurries; DE Sam Brincks batted pass; DT Matt Nelson sack, QB hit; DT Garret Jansen QB hurry

— Iowa's personnel groups and what they did: 21 (two backs, one TE) — 1 of 3 passing for 8 yards, 5 rush for 3 yards; 12 (one back, two TEs) — 3 of 7 for 54 yards, 7 rushes for 27 yards; 22 (two backs, two TEs) — 6 rushes for 36 yards, 1 for 1 passing for 7 yards (TD); 11 shotgun (1 back, 1 TE) — 3 rushes for 5 yards, 2 of 8 passing for 6 yards (INT); 11 (one back, one TE) — 7 rushes for 6 yards, 5 of 6 for 86 passing; 12 shotgun (one back, two TEs) — 4 of 5 passing for 49 yards, 2 rushes for 7; 21 shotgun (two backs, 1 TE) — 1 rush for 3 yards; 13 (one back, three TEs) — 1 rush for 1 yard; 2 of 2 passing for 16 yards

The numbers game

Touchdowns in the red zone

Iowa — 1 of 3

Northwestern — 1 of 2

Tracking the Hawkeyes: Week 1 vs. Wyoming — 1 of 1 (off), 0 of 0 (def); Week 2 vs. ISU — 5 of 6 (off), 3 of 5 (def); Week 3 vs. North Texas — 3 of 5 (off), 1 of 1 (def); Week 4 vs. No. 4 Penn State — 0 of 1 (off), 2 of 5 (def); Week 5 at Michigan State — 1 of 3 (off), 1 of 2 (def); Week 6 vs. Illinois — 4 of 7 (off), 1 of 4 (def); Week 7 at Northwestern — 1 of 3 (off), 1 of 2 (def)

The takeaway: Iowa's offense has really drooped here this season. At 68 percent in overall red zone scores, Iowa is 125th in the country. In the last three weeks, the Hawkeyes are at 58.3 and No. 123 in the country. The Northwestern result certainly showed this trend downward.

Three and outs forced by the defense

Iowa — 1

Northwestern — 4

Tracking the Hawkeyes: Week 1 vs. Wyoming — 3 (def), 5 (off); Week 2 vs. ISU — 5 (def), 6 (off); Week 3 vs. North Texas — 3 (def), 2 (off); Week 4 vs. No. 4 Penn State — 4 (def), 7 (off); Week 5 at Michigan State — 1 (def), 6 (off); Week 6 vs. Illinois — 4 (def), 4 (off); Week 7 at Northwestern — 1 (def), 4 (off)

The takeaway: When Northwestern decided to go no huddle and quicker pace in the second half, that's when the snap counts started to pile up and Iowa's defense loosened just enough. Iowa is allowing 75.3 plays per game. That's 95th in the country. At 67.9 on offense, the Hawkeyes are 101st in the country. In three losses that were decided by a TD or less, this isn't THE Jenga piece that causes the collapse, but it's certainly one of them.

Efficiency

(50% of needed yards on first down, 70% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down)

Iowa — 33.3 percent (22 efficient plays out of 66 total)

Northwestern — 41.4 percent (34 of 82)

Tracking the Hawkeyes: Week 1 vs. Wyoming — 42 percent (off), 34 (def); Week 2 vs. ISU — 46.3 (off), 47.2 (def); Week 3 vs. North Texas — 38.3 percent (off), 45.6 (def); Week 4 vs. No. 4 Penn State — 26.6 (off), 50.5 (def); Week 5 at Michigan State — 33 percent (off), 39.7 (def); Week 6 vs. Illinois — 47.2 (off), 41.3 (def); Week 7 at Northwestern — 33.3 (off), 41.4 (def)

The takeaway: Iowa broke out of its slow starts with an 11- and a 12-play drive. Neither ended in points. Iowa had 10 efficient plays in the first quarter and just 12 the rest of the game. Northwestern had 10 efficient plays in its third-quarter TD drive after just two in the first quarter.

Explosive plays

(Runs of 12-plus yards; passes of 16-plus)

Iowa — 6 (1 run, 5 passes)

Northwestern — 4 (1 run, 3 passes)

Tracking the Hawkeyes: Week 1 vs. Wyoming — 5 (off), 1 (def); Week 2 vs. ISU — 9 (off), 10 (def); Week 3 vs. North Texas — 6 (off), 4 (def); Week 4 vs. No. 4 Penn State — 6 (off), 13 (def); Week 5 at Michigan State — 4 (off), 6 (def); Week 6 vs. Illinois — 9 (off), 8 (def); Week 7 at Northwestern — 6 (off), 4 (def)

The takeaway: All six of Iowa's explosives were in the first half and the Hawkeyes had 7 points to show for it. No explosives in the second half. Wadley had a 22-yard run. Nick Easley, Noah Fant and Toren Young had explosive receptions. Matt VandeBerg had a pair, including a 61-yarder. Three of NU's explosives came in the second half and all three led to points.

Magic Points (scores inside of two minutes)

Iowa — 10

Northwestern — 0

Tracking the Hawkeyes: Week 1 vs. Wyoming — 7 (off), 0 (def); Week 2 vs. ISU — 14 (off), 0 (def); Week 3 vs. North Texas — 7 (off), 7 (def); Week 4 vs. No. 4 Penn State — 13 (off), 6 (def); Week 5 at Michigan State — 0 (off), 3 (def); Week 6 vs. Illinois — 7 (off), 0 (def)

The takeaway: Stanley's TD pass to Fant came with 40 seconds left before half. Miguel Recinos' 48-yard game-tying FG came with 1:30 remaining in the game. NU's crowd sure booed Pat Fitzgerald's decision to take a knee with 1:30 left and two timeouts.

And then in overtime, NU came through and Iowa didn't. There's no clock in OT.

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com