CEDAR RAPIDS — Donald Trump has grabbed the lead from Hillary Clinton in Iowa, according to a new Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
The poll of 612 likely Iowa voters found the New York real estate developer and entertainment mogul leading the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state 44 percent to 37 percent with a 4 percentage point margin of error.
That’s a reversal from a month ago when Quinnipiac showed Clinton, the Democratic nominee, leading her GOP rival in Iowa 41 percent to 39 percent.
“Donald Trump is running better in Iowa than other Midwestern states and that shows in his lead in this poll,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the poll. “He has a slight lead among independent voters, but his margin there may be heavily tied to demographics. Iowa, with a voting bloc that is overwhelmingly white, lacks the kind of large minority population that has fueled Hillary Clinton’s lead in some of the large industrial states.”
In recent polls of Iowans by Monmouth University, Emerson College and CBS News/YouGov have shown Trump leading by 4.3 percentage points, trailing by 8 and tied with Clinton, respectively.
More broadly, the poll showed Trump narrowing the gap with Clinton in Colorado and Virginia while taking the lead in Iowa and Georgia. The independent poll also found gender gaps and huge racial gaps, according to Brown.
He called Iowa and Virginia, where Clinton’s lead has narrowed from 45 to 34 percent a month ago to 45 to 39 percent, a metaphor for what’s happening in the presidential race. A month ago, Clinton was “riding the post-convention wave that gave her double-digit leads in many polls.”
The fresh poll numbers reflect a new reality of a tighter race for the White House.
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“Leads for Donald Trump in Georgia and Iowa and a virtual tie in Colorado plus a 6-point lead for Clinton in Virginia represent a major improvement overall for him in these states,” Brown said.
Another change is that Trump has improved his hold on the Republican base.
“Throughout the campaign, Clinton has been able to get more Democrat support than Trump’s Republican support,” Brown said “In Georgia and Iowa, Trump does better on that score.”
He also pointed out that Trump has an edge among independent voters, often the key swing constituency, in the four states polled.
Quinnipiac found Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson polling 10 percent of the Iowa votes and Green Party candidate Jill Stein getting the support of 2 percent. Johnson gets his biggest tally among independents, 19 percent, with 38 percent of the unaffiliated voters backing Trump and 33 percent favoring Clinton. Republicans back Trump 86 percent to 4 percent, while Democrats back Clinton 83 percent to 5 percent.
Trump also wins the gender battle in Iowa, leading 52 to 26 percent among men. Clinton’s support among women is 47 percent to 37 percent.
The poll was based on live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones between Sept. 13 and 21.
For full results, visit http://www.qu.edu/polling.
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