Iowa football struggles as big favorites

IOWA CITY - Iowa's struggles against Iowa State are well-documented on the football field. But against the spread, the Hawkeyes' problems against the Cyclones are even worse.

The Hawkeyes have been favored against ISU in each of their last 15 games and have won seven times. But with the point spread involved, Iowa is 4-11 over that stretch. It's even worse for Iowa if the spread shifts into double digits. In betting terms, Iowa is just 1-5 as a double-digit favorite against ISU over that span, covering only in 2010.

Iowa's issues against Iowa State tell only part of the story. As double-digit favorites under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa is 46-11 straight up but just 29-28 against the spread. But Ferentz's career against the spread has two acts. From 1999-2005, Iowa was 18-0 straight up as a double-digit favorite and covered in 16 of those games. But with the point spread involved, the numbers are vastly different after 2005.

From 2006 through Saturday's loss to Iowa State, Iowa is 28-11 straight up as a double-digit favorite. Those losses include Northwestern three times, Iowa State twice, Minnesota twice, Indiana twice, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. Iowa has covered in just 13 of those 39 games. This season, Iowa is 0-3 against the spread (2-1 overall).

As for the rest of the Big Ten, nobody is even close to Iowa with those numbers, either against the spread or straight up. Here's how Big Ten teams have performed as double-digit favorites starting with the 2006 season:

Ohio State - 38-27-1 (against the spread); 63-3 straight up

Wisconsin - 28-20-1 (ATS); 48-1 straight up

Nebraska - 24-26-1 (ATS); 45-6 straight up

Penn State - 22-16 (ATS); 38-0 straight up

Michigan - 20-17 (ATS); 36-1 straight up

Michigan State - 14-18-1 (ATS); 30-3 straight up

Rutgers - 14-16 (ATS); 27-3 straight up

Iowa - 13-26 (ATS); 28-11 straight up

Illinois - 12-12 (ATS); 21-3 straight up

Purdue - 9-13-2 (ATS); 22-2 straight up

Northwestern - 8-13 (ATS); 18-3 straight up

Indiana - 8-7 (ATS); 14-1 straight up

Maryland - 7-8 (ATS); 13-2 straight up

Minnesota 6-7 (ATS); 10-3 straight up

Sources: Phil Steele, scoresandodds.com, thegoldsheet.com

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