Bowl Projections: Non-champion Roses criteria

Iowa's bid for its first Rose Bowl in 25 years received two bumps on Saturday. One, the Hawkeyes blasted fellow West Division contender Northwestern 40-10 to stay undefeated overall and picked up a two-game advantage over its divisional foes. Two, Michigan State beat Michigan.

Why is that important? Well, the College Football Playoff has given leeway to anchor bowls to decide its participants in years when it doesn't host a national semifinal. If, say, Ohio State wins the Big Ten championship and qualifies for the College Football Playoff, the Big Ten will send a representative to the Rose Bowl in its place. Who will that be? Here's the criteria Big Ten officials sent me this summer.

'The Rose Bowl Game has sole discretion on a replacement team, and will generally select the highest-rated available team, but will take into consideration final College Football Playoff rankings, head-to-head competition, division champions and most recent Rose Bowl Game appearances.”

That criteria means a lot to Iowa. If the Hawkeyes run the table and lose to top-ranked Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, it could become a political battle with the East Division runner-up. Iowa at 12-1 would be highly ranked, but if Michigan State finishes 11-1, it makes for an interesting discussion. Had Michigan beaten Michigan State on Saturday and finished 10-2, Iowa might lose a PR battle for the Rose Bowl against the high-profile Wolverines and Coach Jim Harbaugh. A similar result might ensue if Iowa has to win a public case against a one-loss Ohio State.

Under the Hawkeyes-Spartans scenario, it's likely both would be highly ranked. They haven't played since 2013, which is a real shame. Iowa would have a divisional title, but MSU might be ranked higher. However, the Spartans last played in Pasadena two years ago. Iowa's last trip was in 1990. Both fan bases would be energized for the Rose Bowl, but there's no doubt the Hawkeyes would turn out in record-type numbers. Would that tip the scales toward Iowa? If we're talking 12-1 vs. 11-1 and an Iowa competitive loss in the Big Ten title game, I bet it would.

Here's how the bowls project in mid-October:

NEW YEAR'S SIX

Orange - Ohio State vs. Clemson (playoff)

Cotton - Baylor vs. Alabama

Rose - Iowa vs. Stanford

Sugar - TCU vs. LSU

Fiesta - Michigan State vs. Utah

Peach - Notre Dame vs. Memphis

BIG TEN BOWLS

Citrus - Michigan vs. Florida

Outback - Penn State vs. Georgia

Holiday - Wisconsin vs. Arizona State

Foster Farms - Northwestern vs. California

Pinstripe - Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh

Music City - Illinois vs. Kentucky

Quick Lane - Indiana vs. Syracuse

OTHERS

TaxSlayer - Florida State vs. Ole Miss

Alamo - Oklahoma vs. UCLA

Russell - West Virginia vs. Miami

Liberty - Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech

Texas - Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

Cactus - Kansas State vs. USC

Sun - Virginia Tech vs. Arizona

Las Vegas - Oregon vs. Utah State

Armed Forces - Air Force vs. N.C. State (Big Ten replacement)

Birmingham - Missouri vs. Cincinnati

Belk - Duke vs. Tennessee

Independence - North Carolina vs. Mississippi State

Heart of Dallas - Rice vs. Louisville (Big 12 replacement)

Military - Boston College vs. Navy

St. Petersburg - Western Kentucky vs. East Carolina

Hawaii - BYU vs. Temple

Boca Raton - Toledo vs. Houston

Cure - South Alabama vs. South Florida

Poinsettia - San Diego State vs. Washington State (Army replacement)

Potato - Colorado State vs. Bowling Green

New Orleans - San Jose State vs. Georgia Southern

New Mexico - Boise State vs. Marshall

Arizona - Middle Tennessee State vs. Nevada

Miami Beach - Southern Miss vs. Tulsa

Bahamas - Western Michigan vs. Louisiana Tech

Camellia - Ohio vs. Arkansas State

GoDaddy - Northern Illinois vs. Appalachian State

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com