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Bowl Projections: Non-champion Roses criteria
Oct. 18, 2015 2:55 pm, Updated: Oct. 18, 2015 7:18 pm
Iowa's bid for its first Rose Bowl in 25 years received two bumps on Saturday. One, the Hawkeyes blasted fellow West Division contender Northwestern 40-10 to stay undefeated overall and picked up a two-game advantage over its divisional foes. Two, Michigan State beat Michigan.
Why is that important? Well, the College Football Playoff has given leeway to anchor bowls to decide its participants in years when it doesn't host a national semifinal. If, say, Ohio State wins the Big Ten championship and qualifies for the College Football Playoff, the Big Ten will send a representative to the Rose Bowl in its place. Who will that be? Here's the criteria Big Ten officials sent me this summer.
'The Rose Bowl Game has sole discretion on a replacement team, and will generally select the highest-rated available team, but will take into consideration final College Football Playoff rankings, head-to-head competition, division champions and most recent Rose Bowl Game appearances.”
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That criteria means a lot to Iowa. If the Hawkeyes run the table and lose to top-ranked Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, it could become a political battle with the East Division runner-up. Iowa at 12-1 would be highly ranked, but if Michigan State finishes 11-1, it makes for an interesting discussion. Had Michigan beaten Michigan State on Saturday and finished 10-2, Iowa might lose a PR battle for the Rose Bowl against the high-profile Wolverines and Coach Jim Harbaugh. A similar result might ensue if Iowa has to win a public case against a one-loss Ohio State.
Under the Hawkeyes-Spartans scenario, it's likely both would be highly ranked. They haven't played since 2013, which is a real shame. Iowa would have a divisional title, but MSU might be ranked higher. However, the Spartans last played in Pasadena two years ago. Iowa's last trip was in 1990. Both fan bases would be energized for the Rose Bowl, but there's no doubt the Hawkeyes would turn out in record-type numbers. Would that tip the scales toward Iowa? If we're talking 12-1 vs. 11-1 and an Iowa competitive loss in the Big Ten title game, I bet it would.
Here's how the bowls project in mid-October:
NEW YEAR'S SIX
Orange - Ohio State vs. Clemson (playoff)
Cotton - Baylor vs. Alabama
Rose - Iowa vs. Stanford
Sugar - TCU vs. LSU
Fiesta - Michigan State vs. Utah
Peach - Notre Dame vs. Memphis
BIG TEN BOWLS
Citrus - Michigan vs. Florida
Outback - Penn State vs. Georgia
Holiday - Wisconsin vs. Arizona State
Foster Farms - Northwestern vs. California
Pinstripe - Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Music City - Illinois vs. Kentucky
Quick Lane - Indiana vs. Syracuse
OTHERS
TaxSlayer - Florida State vs. Ole Miss
Alamo - Oklahoma vs. UCLA
Russell - West Virginia vs. Miami
Liberty - Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech
Texas - Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Cactus - Kansas State vs. USC
Sun - Virginia Tech vs. Arizona
Las Vegas - Oregon vs. Utah State
Armed Forces - Air Force vs. N.C. State (Big Ten replacement)
Birmingham - Missouri vs. Cincinnati
Belk - Duke vs. Tennessee
Independence - North Carolina vs. Mississippi State
Heart of Dallas - Rice vs. Louisville (Big 12 replacement)
Military - Boston College vs. Navy
St. Petersburg - Western Kentucky vs. East Carolina
Hawaii - BYU vs. Temple
Boca Raton - Toledo vs. Houston
Cure - South Alabama vs. South Florida
Poinsettia - San Diego State vs. Washington State (Army replacement)
Potato - Colorado State vs. Bowling Green
New Orleans - San Jose State vs. Georgia Southern
New Mexico - Boise State vs. Marshall
Arizona - Middle Tennessee State vs. Nevada
Miami Beach - Southern Miss vs. Tulsa
Bahamas - Western Michigan vs. Louisiana Tech
Camellia - Ohio vs. Arkansas State
GoDaddy - Northern Illinois vs. Appalachian State
l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com
Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon Ducks football fans arrive for the 98th Rose Bowl Game in Pasadena, California January 2, 2012. REUTERS/Danny Moloshok