NCAA tournament projections: Iowa in or out?

If Selection Sunday was held two days ago or even next week, there's no way Iowa would enter the round of 68. The Hawkeyes would be solidly out of the top-tier conversation and headed for another season of NIT basketball.

But the selections are made in mid-March. There's another month's worth of league play with which to judge the Hawkeyes, which matters in the context of picking the field.

Look at it this way: if the Big Ten schedule was played in reverse, would Iowa have a 4-7 Big Ten record? That's why every team's season needs context. Iowa's first 10 league opponents have a combined 63-47 Big Ten record. The Hawkeyes' final eight league opponents are 33-55. Only No. 1 Indiana (9-2) boasts a winning league record.

That said, it's going to take a tough climb for Iowa to reach the NCAA tournament. A 10-8 league record should do it, although 9-9 and a Big Ten tournament win could get it done, too. With an advantageous stretch run, starting at Penn State (0-11 Big Ten) Thursday, the Hawkeyes have a good shot at 9-9. That's why I'm forecasting Iowa to reach the NCAA tournament. Remember, it's not based on current status but projected outcome.

Here's how I think it plays out in mid-March:

CENTRAL REGION -- INDIANAPOLIS

[naviga:ul]

[naviga:li]1. Indiana vs. 16. Norfolk State/Southern, Lexington, Ky., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]8. Virginia Commonwealth vs. 9. North Carolina State, Lexington, Ky., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]5. Marquette vs. 12. Bucknell, Salt Lake City, Utah, Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]4. New Mexico vs. 13. Louisiana Tech, Salt Lake City, Utah, Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]3. Butler vs. 14. Valparaiso, Dayton, Ohio, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]6. Wisconsin vs. 11. Middle Tennessee State, Dayton, Ohio, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]7. Oregon vs. 10. UNLV, San Jose, Calif., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]2. Miami vs. 15. Harvard, San Jose, Calif., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[/naviga:ul]

SOUTH REGION -- ARLINGTON, TEXAS (Fri-Sun)

[naviga:ul]

[naviga:li]1. Florida vs. 16. Florida Gulf Coast, Austin, Texas, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]8. Illinois vs. 9. North Carolina, Austin, Texas, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]5. Georgetown vs. 12. Colorado/Southern Miss winner, Kansas City, Mo., Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]4. Kansas State vs. 13. Belmont, Kansas City, Mo., Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]3. Michigan State vs. 14. Stony Brook, Auburn Hills, Mich., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Indiana State, Auburn Hills, Mich., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]7. Missouri vs. 10. St. Louis, Kansas City, Mo., Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]2. Kansas vs. 15. Western Illinois, Kansas City, Mo., Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[/naviga:ul]

EAST REGION -- WASHINGTON, D.C.

[naviga:ul]

[naviga:li]1. Duke vs. 16. Northeastern, Philadelphia, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]8. Ole Miss vs. 9. St. Mary's, Philadelphia, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]5. Oklahoma State vs. 12. Iowa-Colorado State winner, Dayton, Ohio, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]4. Cincinnati vs. 13. Davidson, Dayton, Ohio, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]3. Ohio State vs. 14. Akron, Lexington, Ky., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]6. Memphis vs. 11. Oklahoma, Lexington, Ky., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]7. Kentucky vs. 10. Wichita State, Philadelphia, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]2. Syracuse vs. 15. Bryant, Philadelphia, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[/naviga:ul]

WEST REGION -- LOS ANGELES

[naviga:ul]

[naviga:li]1. Michigan vs. 16. UNC-Asheville/Loyola (Md.) winner, Auburn Hills, Mich., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]8. UCLA vs. 9. Iowa State, Auburn Hills, Mich., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]5. Creighton vs. 12. BYU, Austin, Texas, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]4. Louisville vs. 13. Stephen F. Austin, Austin, Texas, Fri-Sun[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]3. Arizona vs. 14. Montana, Salt Lake City, Utah, Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]6. Minnesota vs. 11. LaSalle, Salt Lake City, Utah, Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]7. Pittsburgh vs. 10. San Diego State, San Jose, Calif., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[naviga:li]2. Gonzaga vs. Long Beach State, San Jose, Calif., Thurs-Sat[/naviga:li]

[/naviga:ul]