Iowa offense at pace for worst season in Kirk Ferentz era, but Hawkeyes optimistic about improvements

IOWA CITY — A young Riley Moss would “always want things super fast and right now and right now.”

“My dad always used to harp on me delayed gratification,” the Iowa football fifth-year senior cornerback said about his childhood. “Then I learned sometimes being patient and working for it — it ends up paying off in the end.”

Replace the Ankeny native’s childhood wish list with Iowa fans’ desire to see a winning team, and Moss sees the parallels.

Iowa fans have had little-to-no gratification from the offense so far in 2022, but Moss expressed confidence in that gratification eventually happening this season.

“Just wait and see,” Moss said Tuesday outside the team’s practice facility. “We’re working on it.”

The offense certainly has plenty of work to do, and if Moss’ optimism doesn’t pan out, history does not look kindly at the scenario Iowa is facing.

The Hawkeyes are statistically one of the worst offenses in the FBS.

They’re 131st out of 131 teams in total offense, 126th in completion percentage, tied for 124th in third-down conversion percentage and 127th in rushing yards per game. They have more punts than points.

Iowa has won plenty of games under head coach Kirk Ferentz’s leadership with lackluster offenses and efficient defenses and special teams units. The 10-win seasons in 2004 and 2021 are prime examples.

But through two games, Iowa is at pace to reach a level of offensive production that would make 2004 or 2021 look glowing.

Iowa’s numbers in several key offensive statistics are lower in 2022 than in any of Ferentz’s other 23 seasons as Iowa head coach, and by a wide margin in some cases.

Ferentz’s all-time low for yards per game was 300.3 in 1999, when the Hawkeyes went 1-11 in Ferentz’s first season at the helm. The 2022 Hawkeyes are averaging 158 yards per game — 47 percent below the 1999 mark.

The all-time low for yards per play was in 2000, Ferentz’s second season, when Iowa had 4.5 yards per play. In 2022, Iowa is averaging 2.8 yards per play — 38 percent lower than the previous Ferentz-era minimum.

Iowa’s yards per carry, completion percentage and third-down conversion percentage in 2022 also sit below any other season during Ferentz’s tenure.

As running back Gavin Williams sees it, he and the rest of the Iowa offense need to fix a lot of “little mistakes” from the first two weeks.

“The little mistakes that you might not see at first glance that kind of have that cumulative effect,” Williams said.

Fix those things, and Williams thinks the “sky is the limit, honestly.”

Even with Iowa’s success on defense, incremental progress on offense might not be enough to right the ship.

If Iowa upped its 2.8 yards per play to 5.0, third-down conversion rate to 33 percent and its completion rate to 54 percent — all dramatic improvements — the precedent from the previous 23 years in Iowa City still wouldn’t paint a rosy picture.

Iowa has averaged fewer than 5 yards per play six times during Ferentz’s tenure as head coach. Only two of those seasons ended with bowl trips.

Iowa’s completion percentage has fallen below 54 percent three times in the Ferentz era. Only one of those seasons ended with a bowl trip.

Iowa has never earned a bowl invite in the Ferentz era while converting on less than a third of third downs.

Iowa’s offense also has turned the ball over five times through the first two games — a troubling statistic for Ferentz.

“To think that we're going to win the way we want to win the next 10 weeks — going five every two games — that's unrealistic,” Ferentz said. “There's one year we defied that number. I think it was in '09. Other than that, our good teams protect the football.”

ESPN’s Football Power Index provides game-by-game win probabilities. It’s far from a flawless measure, but it predicted the win against South Dakota State and loss against Iowa State.

It gives Iowa a 50-percent chance of winning or better for only three more games this season — Nevada, Northwestern and Nebraska — as of Tuesday morning.

Should Iowa’s offense improve, it would likely have a major impact on ESPN’s formula. FPI rates the Hawkeyes’ offensive efficiency on a scale of 0 to 100 as 1.5.

“You're not going to win a game, 7 points, 10 points a game, as a rule,” Ferentz said Saturday.

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