The case for (and against) Iowa as a 1-seed in the NCAA women’s basketball tournament

IOWA CITY — The Iowa Hawkeyes brought confetti, snippets of nylon and a heavy championship trophy home from Minneapolis on Sunday.

They also hauled home something else — a valid argument for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA women’s basketball tournament.

This much we know: South Carolina (32-0) — the top-ranked team and defending champion — is an absolute lock. After that is murkiness, with as many as eight teams in the musical-chairs game for the other three 1-seeds.

The NCAA selection show is 7 p.m. Sunday (ESPN).

Iowa (26-6) zoomed up five spots to No. 2 in this week’s Associated Press poll after dismantling Ohio State, 105-72, in the championship game of the Big Ten tournament Sunday.

Will the NCAA committee members make a similar adjustment? The Hawkeyes were ninth in the most recent NCAA reveal, meaning they were the top 3-seed.

Surely, the Hawkeyes will rise to a 2. Maybe a 1?

According to ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme:

“The Hawkeyes have something else (in their favor): two indelible wins on consecutive Sundays on national TV.

“First came Caitlin Clark's twisting 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat Indiana. Then it was the 105-72 Big Ten title game devastation of the Buckeyes, in which Clark left another lasting impression with a 30-point, 17-assist, 10-rebound triple-double.”

But ...

“How will committee members weigh Iowa losses to Kansas State and Illinois, as well as a 28-point pounding by Maryland?”

As of Tuesday, Creme lists South Carolina, Indiana, Virginia Tech and Stanford as his projected No. 1 seeds, with Iowa, Maryland, Connecticut and Utah as 2s.

With Stanford and Iowa in the same region, that would mean the Hawkeyes are the No. 5 overall seed, the best of the regional 2-seeds.

The following are the resumes of the eight top contenders for the three remaining 1-seeds (excluding South Carolina), in order of Creme’s latest projections:

Indiana (27-3)

NET ranking: 5

AP ranking: 3

RPI: 3

Strength of schedule: 9

Charlie Creme overall projection: 2

Conference: Big Ten, 16-2 (1st), tournament semifinalist

Quad 1: 11-3

Quad 2: 9-0

Quad 3: 4-0

Quad 4: 3-0

Last 10: 8-2

Head-to-head with other contenders: Split two games with Iowa, win over Maryland.

Virginia Tech (27-4)

NET ranking: 9

AP ranking: 4

RPI: 6

Strength of schedule: 31

Charlie Creme overall projection: 3

Conference: Atlantic Coast, 14-4 (T-2nd), tournament champion

Quad 1: 12-4

Quad 2: 9-0

Quad 3: 1-0

Quad 4: 5-0

Last 10: 10-0 (winning streak is 11)

Head-to-head with other contenders: None.

Stanford (28-5)

NET ranking: 4

AP ranking: 5

RPI: 4

Strength of schedule: 3

Charlie Creme overall projection: 4

Conference: Pac-12, 15-3 (T-1st), tournament semifinalist

Quad 1: 13-5

Quad 2: 6-0

Quad 3: 6-0

Quad 4: 3-0

Last 10: 7-3

Head-to-head with other contenders: Split two games with Utah.

Iowa (26-6)

NET ranking: 6

AP ranking: 2

RPI: 7

Strength of schedule: 12

Charlie Creme overall projection: 5

Conference: Big Ten, 15-3 (T-2nd), tournament champion

Quad 1: 11-6

Quad 2: 6-0

Quad 3: 5-0

Quad 4: 4-0

Last 10: 8-2

Head-to-head with other contenders: Split two games with Indiana, won two of three against Maryland, lost to Connecticut.

Maryland (25-6)

NET ranking: 13

AP ranking: 6

RPI: 8

Strength of schedule: 7

Charlie Creme overall projection: 6

Conference: Big Ten, 15-3 (T-2nd), tournament semifinalist

Quad 1: 11-4

Quad 2: 4-2

Quad 3: 8-0

Quad 4: 2-0

Last 10: 8-2

Head-to-head with other contenders: Win over Connecticut, lost to Indiana, lost two of three to Iowa.

Connecticut (29-5)

NET ranking: 2

AP ranking: 7

RPI: 2

Strength of schedule: 2

Charlie Creme overall projection: 7

Conference: Big East, 18-2 (1st), tournament champion

Quad 1: 15-4

Quad 2: 7-1

Quad 3: 6-0

Quad 4: 1-0

Last 10: 8-2

Head-to-head with other contenders: Win over Iowa, loss to Maryland

Utah (25-4)

NET ranking: 7

AP ranking: 8

RPI: 9

Strength of schedule: 37

Charlie Creme overall projection: 8

Conference: Pac-12, 15-3 (T-1st), tournament quarterfinalist

Quad 1: 10-4

Quad 2: 7-0

Quad 3: 3-0

Quad 4: 5-0

Last 10: 8-2

Head-to-head with other contenders: Split two games with Stanford.

LSU (28-2)

NET ranking: 3

AP ranking: 9

RPI: 13

Strength of schedule: 83

Charlie Creme overall projection: 11

Conference: Southeastern, 15-1 (2nd), tournament semifinalist

Quad 1: 6-2

Quad 2: 9-0

Quad 3: 7-0

Quad 4: 6-0

Last 10: 8-2

Head-to-head with other contenders: None.

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com