'Onward we go:' Iowa is the favorite among the remaining Seattle 4 Region survivors

Iowa was the only women’s basketball team in the Seattle 4 Region to effectively protect its home court in the first two rounds.

As a result, the Hawkeyes now assume a new role:

Final Four favorites.

According to the computers and the metrics, 2-seed Iowa (28-6) now has a better-than-break-even chance to win two games in Seattle this weekend.

Accomplish that, and the Hawkeyes — ranked No. 3 in the final Associated Press poll — are Dallas-bound for the Final Four.

“This was the first weekend,” Iowa dynamo Caitlin Clark said after the Hawkeyes held off Georgia, 74-66, in the second round Sunday.

“Now, it’s onto the second weekend, and hopefully there’s a third.”

Iowa is a 5-point favorite over 6-seed Colorado (25-8) in a Seattle Region 4 semifinal; tipoff is 6:30 p.m. (Iowa time) Friday at Climate Pledge Arena (ESPN).

The Buffaloes are ranked 21st by the AP.

In the other semifinal, at 9 p.m., 5-seed Louisville (25-11) meets 8-seed Mississippi (25-8).

The regional final is 8 p.m. (Iowa time) Sunday.

According to fivethirtyeight.com, Iowa has a 53-percent likelihood of winning Friday, winning Sunday and reaching the Final Four for the first time in 30 years.

Ole Miss, Colorado and Louisville all pulled off road upsets in the second round, and the Rebels’ shocker — 54-49 over top-seeded Stanford — was a monster.

“Just walking in, knowing who we are, we've been battle-tested all year, we've fallen short,” Ole Miss senior Angel Baker said. “It was finally our time to step into that moment and come out on top.”

The metrics say that Louisville has a 22-percent chance of reaching Dallas, Ole Miss 13 percent and Colorado 12 percent.

Under Jeff Walz, Louisville has been the most successful of the Seattle 4 Region quartet in recent years. The Cardinals have reached four Final Fours since 2009, with runner-up finishes in 2009 and 2013.

Louisville whipped 4-seed Texas, 73-51, Monday at Austin.

Colorado had the most dramatic second-round game, outlasting 3-seed Duke, 61-53, in overtime. The Buffaloes are in the Sweet 16 for the first time in 20 years.

“I freaking love my team,” Coach J.R. Payne said afterward. “I'm so unbelievably proud of our tenacity, our ability to just never wilt. When things get hard, we dig in, we lean into each other and just continue to fight.

“Super proud, and onward we go.”

NCAA women’s basketball: Seattle Region 4 capsules

Mississippi

Coach: Yolett McPhee-McCuin (5th year at Ole Miss, 79-74; 10th year overall, 173-137)

Final AP ranking: NR

Seattle Region 4 seed: No. 8

Record: 25-8

Conference: 11-5 SEC (4th), tournament semifinalist

How the Rebels got here: Beat Gonzaga, 71-48; beat top-seed Stanford, 54-49.

Leading scorers: Angel Baker (5-8, sr.), 14.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, .828 FT%; Madison Scott (6-1, jr.), 11.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, .516 FG%; Marquesha Davis (6-0, sr.), 10.2 ppg

Scoring averages: Offense 68.8, defense 56.3

Sweet 16 history: 11th appearance, first since 2007. Four Elite Eights.

Series with Iowa: The teams have not met.

Common opponents with Iowa: Georgia (Ole Miss won, 66-58; Iowa won, 74-66).

Louisville

Coach: Jeff Walz (16th year, 440-124)

Final AP ranking: NR

Seattle Region 4 seed: No. 5

Record: 25-11

Conference: 12-6 ACC (T-4th), tournament runner-up

How the Cardinals got here: Beat Drake, 83-81; beat Texas, 73-51

Leading scorers: Hailey Van Lith (5-7, jr.), 19.5 ppg, 3.2 apg, .880FT%; Chrislyn Carr (5-5, sr.), 11.2 ppg, .426 3FG%

Scoring averages: Offense 73.1, defense 63.4

Sweet 16 history: 11th appearance, all since 2008. Six Elite Eights, four Final Fours, national runner-up in 2009 and 2013.

Series with Iowa: 2-0. Last meeting was an 86-52 win in the 2014 ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Louisville.

Common opponents with Iowa: Belmont (Louisville won, 75-70; Iowa won, 73-62); Ohio State (Louisville lost, 96-77; Iowa won, 83-72 and 105-72); North Carolina State (Louisville lost, 63-51; Iowa lost, 94-81); Drake (Louisville won, 83-81, in NCAA first round; Iowa won, 92-86, OT)

Colorado

Coach: J.R. Payne (7th year at Colorado, 144-100; 14th year overall, 245-213)

Final AP ranking: No. 21

Seattle Region 4 seed: No. 6

Record: 25-8

Conference: 13-5 Pac-12 (3rd), tournament semifinalist

How the Buffaloes got here: Beat Middle Tennessee, 82-60; beat Duke, 61-53, OT.

Leading scorers: Quay Miller (6-3, sr.), 13.1 ppg, 8.7 rpg; Aaronette Vonleh (6-3, soph.), 12.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, .587 FG%, Jaylyn Sherrod (5-7, sr.), 11.3 ppg, apg

Scoring averages: Offense 69.0, defense 58.5

Sweet 16 history: 7th appearance, first since 2003. Three Elite Eights.

Series with Iowa: 3-3. Last meeting was an 80-62 win at Iowa City in the 2017 WNIT.

Common opponents with Iowa: Oregon State (Colorado won, 67-48 and 62-54; Iowa won, 73-59)

Iowa

Coach: Lisa Bluder (39th year, 847-390; 23rd year at Iowa, 491-248)

Final AP ranking: No. 3

Seattle Region 4 seed: No. 2

Record: 28-6

Conference: 15-3 Big Ten (T-2nd); tournament champion

How the Hawkeyes got here: Beat Southeastern Louisiana, 95-43; beat Georgia, 74-66.

Leading scorers: Caitlin Clark (6-0, jr.), 26.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 8.6 apg; Monika Czinano (6-3, sr.), 17.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, .675 FG%; McKenna Warnock (6-1, sr.), 10.9 ppg

Scoring averages: Offense 87.4, defense 70.4

Sweet 16 history: 9th appearance, fourth under Bluder. Final Four in 1993; four Elite Eights (most recently in 2019).

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com