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DES MOINES - If he runs, former President Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite of Iowa Republicans to win the state's first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses.
If he doesn't, it appears there will be a wide-open race for Iowa GOP support among the party hopefuls seeking to challenge President Joe Biden in 2024.
A Victory Insights poll of 650 Iowa Republicans found that 61 percent said they will support Trump if he runs.
No other Republican topped 10 percent among 'very likely” caucusgoers in the poll conducted March 5-8. However, Utah U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney, 'someone else” and former Vice President Mike Pence had more than 10 percent support among all Republicans.
If Trump doesn't run, 'it's complicated,” according to Victory Insights.
More than 1,000 days ahead of the 2024 caucuses, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Pence and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who won the 2016 Iowa caucuses, sit atop the field. Among very likely caucusgoers, DeSantis was at 20 percent with Pence was just a tick behind and Cruz at 16 percent. However, support for DeSantis and Cruz fell off among all Republicans, while Pence's support remained steady.
'Undecided” and 'someone else” combined for more than 30 percent among all Republicans.
Former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo - who will be in Iowa later this week - and Romney were seen as 'low-tier” candidates.
'Of course, there are several aspects of the Iowa caucuses that polls can simply not anticipate. After all, the caucus still is years away,” Victory Insights said.
However, based on the demographically weighted study, it concluded the 'win rate” for DeSantis is 54 percent, 29 percent for Pence and 17 percent for Cruz.
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