Preseason bowl projections

We have a new era in college football, where the complaining and gnashing of expectations will vault to a whole new level. Yes, we're talking about the College Football Playoff, where people already are stressed about which power five conference will get left out in football's musical chairs.

If the past is an indicator (and it is), it all takes care of itself. With a four-team field, it allows the arguments to spread from the top two teams to the top six or seven. The angst will be high, but at least it guarantees an unbeaten power-five school a chance to compete for the national title.

In 2003, USC was ranked No. 1 by the Associated Press and No. 3 by the Bowl Championship Series. LSU and Oklahoma - which was destroyed 35-7 in the Big 12 title game - qualified for the 1 vs. 2 match-up in the Sugar Bowl. All three were one-loss teams. USC won, as did LSU, which gave us a split championship. A four-team playoff would have solved those woes.

In 2004, USC and Oklahoma were ranked 1-2 entering the season and stayed that way until the very end. Auburn, the SEC champion, also finished unbeaten but couldn't crack the top two. This alleviates that problem.

In 2005, USC and Texas waged an epic battle in the Rose Bowl for the BCS title. That year didn't need a playoff, but if it did, two Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Penn State) likely would have served as the appetizer to the USC-Texas main course.

Even in 2011, which ultimately gave us the College Football Playoff (the spark was Iowa State's win against Oklahoma State), LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma State would have comfortably enjoyed the spectacle while the discussion swirled around a fourth team. Probably Stanford goes, but maybe Oregon.

This year, we've all got it figured out. Only, which conference will get discarded? Nationally, the Big Ten lost all hope when Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller injured his shoulder. But using that logic robs both Michigan State and Auburn of their spots in last year's hypothetical four-team playoff field. Neither squad was ranked entering the season. It makes no sense to put any team or league in the playoff cemetery before the games begin.

Come November, we'll gab about how crazy the situation is, like we do every year when there are five or six unbeatens with three games left. Then there will be an upset or two, one thunderous de facto play-in game (SEC, Pac-12 championship) and then finally some clarity. I think it happens this year as well.

Here's a little bit of a bowl primer:

TOP-TIER BOWLS

- Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, Peach. Every three years, two bowls host national semifinals. This year, the Rose and Sugar are semifinal sites. The Cotton and Orange serve as semifinals for the 2015 season, followed by the Fiesta and Peach in 2016.

PLAYOFF SELECTION PROCESS

- A 13-member committee selects for the four-team playoff. The No. 1 team plays in a semifinal bowl site closest to its campus or fits with the team's traditional bowl location. The remaining three teams then are seeded without regard to location or whether they had met in the regular season, a previous bowl or even if they're in the same league.

COMMITTEE BOWL PROCESS

- This has different layers, and all of them are important. The champions of the five power conferences (Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, ACC, SEC) automatically qualify, as does the best team from a non-power five league. Record doesn't necessarily matter for the non-power five schools.

Some bowls have automatic tie-ins when they do not host a semifinal. The Rose pits a Big Ten team against a Pac-12 team, and the Sugar pits the SEC against the Big 12. Over the next 12 years, the Orange Bowl hosts an ACC squad against a non-champion from either the SEC (three times), Big Ten (three times) or Notre Dame (twice). If a Big Ten school qualifies for the Orange Bowl, the ACC takes its spot in the Capital One Bowl.

SCHEDULE

- ESPN broadcasts all playoff games and committee bowls on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. This year, the Peach, Fiesta and Orange air in succession on Dec. 31. The Cotton, Rose and Sugar air consecutively on Jan. 1. The Capital One (ABC) and Outback (ESPN2) bowls will remain on Jan. 1 but no other games will air on Dec. 31 or Jan. 1.

PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP

- This year it takes place Jan. 12 in Arlington, Texas. It is not considered a bowl game, unlike the semifinals.

Here's a look at some preseason bowl projections:

PLAYOFF

Rose

- 1. UCLA vs. 4. Michigan

Sugar

- 2. Florida State vs. 3. Georgia

COMMITTEE BOWLS

Orange (ACC vs. B1G/SEC/ND)

- North Carolina vs. Alabama

Peach (at-large vs. at-large)

- South Carolina vs. Marshall (top non-power five qualifier)

Fiesta (at-large vs. at-large)

- Oklahoma vs. Oregon

Cotton (at-large vs. at-large)

- Baylor vs. Iowa

BIG TEN BOWLS

Capital One (B1G/ACC vs. SEC)

- Ohio State vs. Auburn

Outback (B1G vs. SEC)

- Michigan State vs. Florida

Holiday (B1G vs. PAC)

- Wisconsin vs. USC

Fight Hunger (B1G vs. PAC)

- Nebraska vs. Stanford

Music City (B1G/ACC vs. SEC)

- Indiana vs. Mississippi State

Pinstripe (B1G vs. ACC)

- Maryland vs. Duke

Detroit (B1G vs. ACC)

- Northwestern vs. Syracuse

Heart of Dallas (B1G vs. CUSA)

- Minnesota vs. Rice

POWER FIVE BOWLS

Gator (SEC vs. ACC/ND/B1G)

- Missouri vs. Clemson

Belk (SEC vs. ACC)

- Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech

Liberty (B12 vs. SEC)

- West Virginia vs. Ole Miss

Birmingham (SEC vs. AAC)

- Texas A&M vs. Houston

Independence (SEC vs. ACC)

- Georgia Tech vs. Colorado State (SEC replacement)

Alamo (B12 vs. PAC)

- TCU vs. Arizona

Russell Athletic (B12 vs. ACC/ND)

- Kansas State vs. Notre Dame

Valley of the Sun (B12 vs. PAC)

- Oklahoma State vs. Arizona State

Armed Forces (B12/Army vs. AAC)

- Texas Tech vs. SMU

Sun (ACC/ND vs. PAC)

- Louisville vs. Washington

Las Vegas (PAC vs. MWC)

- Oregon State vs. Utah State

Military (ACC vs. AAC)

- N.C. State vs. East Carolina

St. Petersburg (ACC vs. AAC)

- Miami vs. Central Florida

OTHER BOWLS

Miami Beach (BYU vs. AAC)

- BYU vs. Cincinnati

Poinsettia (MWC vs. Navy)

- Fresno State vs. Navy

Potato (MWC vs. MAC)

- Boise State vs. Northern Illinois

New Mexico (MWC vs. CUSA)

- Air Force vs. UTSA

Hawaii (MWC vs. CUSA)

- San Diego State vs. Washington State (CUSA replacement)

New Orleans (CUSA vs. Sun Belt)

- Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Boca Raton (CUSA vs. MAC)

- Florida Atlantic vs. Toledo

Go Daddy (MAC vs. Sun Belt)

- Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Bowling Green

Camellia (MAC vs. Sun Belt)

- South Alabama vs. Akron

Bahamas (CUSA vs. MAC)

- North Texas vs. Ball State

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com