Trump leads Clinton by 1 percentage point in new Iowa poll
Slim lead is within the margin of error
James Q. Lynch
CEDAR RAPIDS — Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by the slimmest of margins in Iowa, according to the inaugural poll from a partnership between an Iowa college and a research firm.
The GOP nominee has a 43 percent to 42 percent lead over his Democratic rival in the first Simpson College/RABA poll.
The poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 among a random sample of 1,054 voters on landlines and cellphones with supplemental cell-only households surveyed on line. It has a margin of error +/- 3 points.
Trump’s lead holds when Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green nominee Jill Stein are added to the mix. Then the results were Trump 40 percent, Clinton 39 percent, Johnson 10 percent and Stein 3 percent and 8 percent undecided.
The poll findings show that both Clinton and Trump have a “loyal, dug-in base of support showing little movement, even when Iowa voters are given an alternative candidate from which to choose,” said Professor Kedron Bardwell, chairman of Simpson’s political science department.
“The campaigns of both Trump and Clinton have even more reason to ratchet up their ground games to make sure the votes are there on Election Day,” he said.
The results also indicate that Iowa voters are not entirely settled with the top two choices, Bardwell said. While 57 percent say they are voting “for” their candidates, 41 percent are turning out to vote “against” the other side, affirming a certain polarization among the electorate as a whole.
“As of now, both candidates have a very high floor when it comes to early support,” said RABA Research Partner Brad Anderson, a Des Moines Democrat. “If Democrats continue their historically effective turn-out-the-vote program, it could be enough to make the difference in what is shaping up to be an ultra-close race.”
Iowans demonstrated a sense of fairness with 57 percent saying the third-party candidates should have a spot on the debate stage this fall alongside of Trump and Clinton.
The poll is the first in a series of Simpson/RABA polls released this week. Tomorrow, results from a poll on the U.S. Senate race between Democratic challenger Patty Judge and Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley are to be released.
Founded in 1860, Simpson College is a United Methodist related, independent, undergraduate, coeducational liberal arts college in Indianola offering 80 majors, minors and programs.
RABA — Red and Blue America — was founded earlier this year by a bipartisan group of political professionals who have worked for candidates, issues, organizations and corporations across the globe. Its Iowa-based partners are Republicans David Kochel and Tim Albrecht, and Democrat Brad Anderson.
For full poll results, visit http://www.rabaresearch.com/.